Welcome to our coverage of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! The best event in sports is here and we will be as well, providing step-by-step previews of each region and breaking down what to watch for and who to keep an eye on during the basketball feast that is the NCAA Tournament.
Who the metrics love: #6 Louisville
The Cardinals finished the season 23-10, racked up eight Q1 wins, didn’t lose to anyone worse than #58 and did that on the road, and were 19th in overall efficiency. For that they were rewarded with a six seed in the hardest bracket. The predictives, though, love this team. They are 19th in KenPom, 17th in TRank, and 17th in the NET. That puts them ahead of Kansas in the NET and very close to level with St. John’s, who is the five seed in this region. If you don’t factor in WAB, this is a team that is underseeded and has the efficiencies to prove that point.
Who the metrics hate: #11 South Florida
If you visit Bracketologists you’ll find USF below two teams that didn’t make it. Their WAB is actually a negative number. (Wins Below Bubble?) KenPom has them 47th and that’s the highest of any predictive metric. If these guys didn’t win the slop fest that is the American, they wouldn’t be here. Obviously, the low major at large teams are worse in the predictives, but this is a program that was supposed to, at one point, be a major. This is not a team that merits that.
Easy to like: #2 UConn
YEAH I SAID IT! Why do you watch sports? If it’s for entertainment, here’s the group you want. Honestly, it’s Dan Hurley. I like him. I like his whole schtick. I like the fact he very much seems like he’s in on the joke. I like how he’s a good barometer for finding out who takes themselves too seriously. But also, this team is the one in this bracket that can beat Duke. This is our white knight. We need to support them.
Easy to hate: #1 Duke
I mean, it’s Duke. They have always found the biggest bunch of spoiled Daddy’s money whiners they can and put them together on one team. Their “rivalry” with UNC is absolutely fake. It’s the kind of rivalry where people in pastel polos and boat shoes wife swap in the offseason. The Cameron Crazies are about as anodyne as a student section gets and the school monitors what they chant. That’s lame. That’s all bad enough, then they added Jon Scheyer, who it turns out is all of the above, plus an unrepentant liar. I hope they lose to Siena and everyone laughs and points.
Fun to watch: #11 South Florida
The reason these guys aren’t a metric darling is because they way they play basketball isn’t really conducive to good results. If “whee” had a playing style, this would be it. They play the fastest tempo in the region by two possessions. That’s a lot. They shoot the ball, then gleefully run after the semi-inevitable miss to rebound. On defense they do all the stuff every coach would tell you not to, reaching for steals, jumping to try to block everything, and not boxing out at all. They could score 90 and win, they could score 50 and lose. They won’t be boring.
Danger team: #5 St. John’s
These guys are on the five line because they didn’t win any of their big non-con games. After that, they got rolling. UConn punked them once, but they returned the favor in the Big East Tournament final. They won the Big East outright. They smashed Baylor, they beat Villanova by 32. In top two quad competition they are 16-5. They have maybe the best big man in the nation, and their coach is a living legend. If they are playing well, they can beat anyone in the field.
Best matchup: #6 Louisville v #11 South Florida
I have not thought about South Florida in years, and here they are three times in the same article. Louisville has an impressive resume except for at the very top. The reason for that is that they can play themselves into trouble. If the shots aren’t falling, USF will punish the Cardinals by being down the floor lightning quick. Louisville is a good defensive rebounding team, but that will absolutely be put to the test this game. If Pat Kelsey’s guys flinch, they’ll find themselves in a game.
Player to watch: Dominique Daniels, Cal Baptist
People say “bucket getter” too much. This guy is a bucket getter. He scored 41 in the WAC semfinal and that was the seventh time he had scored 30 or more this season alone. He’s listed at 5-10, 185, but he’s not. What he is is absolutely electric. His handle is cut straight from an old And 1 mixtape, he changes direction like a remote control car, his release is incredibly quick, and he’s utterly fearless. He was 4-22 from the floor in the WAC final with under two minutes to play.
Undaunted, he took, and made, all three of his teams three shots from that point on. 1-12 from the floor for the half, he sank a three, literally sat his man down and sank another one, then buried the winning three. If you love guys who just flat out ball, Dom Daniels is the one to watch. He will probably only last for a game, but he might be one of those guys who goes down in lore. He will definitely shoot enough to give himself the chance.