Luka Doncic's Lakers forecasted to be NBA's biggest letdown for the 2026-27 season originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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Historical franchises that have been perennial title contenders tend to rank at the top of the list regardless of their roster makeup. At least, that was the idea before the Los Angeles Lakers got their 2026-27 NBA projections. Coach JJ Redick underwent a roster revamp that saw him lose key components, the biggest being LeBron James.
So, how do the Purple and Gold, led by Luka Doncic, stack up against the rest of the competition? Not well, apparently.
Doncic, Lakers projected to be most 'disappointing' team for 2026-27 NBA season
LeBron James is certainly a big loss for any team, both in terms of pulling fans for more revenue and on-court performance. But his departure is not the only thing that will bog the Lakers down. Coach JJ Redick essentially completed a full roster overhaul, sending veterans like Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton, Luke Kennard, and Jaxson Hayes out. All of this means that their projected success for the 2026-27 NBA season tanked.
In fact, ESPN posits that the Lakers will end up 'disappointing' and 'taking a tumble'.
| 1. Los Angeles Lakers | 32 points |
| 2. Detroit Pistons | 27 points |
| 3. Golden State Warriors | 26 points |
| 4. Miami Heat | 22 points |
| 5. Boston Celtics | 17 points |
"With L.A. building out its team to fit specifically around 27-year-old superstar Luka Doncic… If L.A. can't build on its last two 50-win seasons, the team's handling of LeBron James' exit will be called into question all over again," ESPN declared.
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Coach Redick will struggle on nearly every front of the court with how much the Lakers have lost. Except for Doncic leading the Lakers and the NBA in points, they lost nearly all of their top three leaders in major statistical categories. Ayton. With his eight rebounds and block per game, he is a crucial loss for their defensive rating. James, who had 7.2 assists and 6.1 rebounds, left a deep two-way hole to be filled. Kennard and Hachimura's outside scoring will also be missed; they led the Lakers with 44.8% and 44.3% from three, respectively.
Yes, Walker Kessler and Ziaire Williams are respected additions to the Lakers, but they won't be able to anchor Coach Redick's defense. As evidenced by the Lakers' 2025-26 Four Factors, their overall defense and slow offense need polishing. It seems their roster makeup can't cover that yet.
| Lakers' 2025-26 NBA Four Factors | |||||||||
| Offense | Defense | ||||||||
| ORTG | eFG% | TOV% | ORB% | FT/FGA | DRTG | eFG% | TOV% | ORB% | FT/FGA |
| 118.2 | .573% | 13.2 | 23.9 | .244 | 116.4 | .555 | 13.0 | 74.3 | .191 |
| 9th in the NBA | 2nd in the NBA | 20th in the NBA | 22nd in the NBA | 2nd in the NBA | 19th in the NBA | 23rd in the NBA | 14th in the NBA | 13th in the NBA | 8th in the NBA |
In what specific areas will the Lakers tank? It's hard to say they won't backslide in all of these categories.
Offensively, they will lose James and Smart. Those two combined for a total of 617 assists to orchestrate the Lakers' offense, all while Doncic was still able to dole out 530 assists. Now, Coach Redick does not have the luxury of having these two facilitators with immense offensive gravity on their team. Moreover, the Lakers are also six of their top 10 field goal scorers: James (2nd, 473 FG), Ayton (3rd, 403 FG), Hachimura (5th, 307 FG), Hayes (7th, 198 FG), Smart (8th, 188 FG), and Kennard (10th, 107 FG).
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Those numbers in the Lakers' offensive rating and effective field goal percentage are likely to drop. The fact that defenses can pressure both Reaves and Doncic more, given that there are no other scoring options for Coach Redick, means their turnover percentage will also sink.
Defensively, it will not be hard to predict that the Lakers will struggle. Kessler is a nifty addition, with a career 113.4 defensive rating, having defended 1,144 shots and allowing only a 54.37% opponent field goal percentage. In fact, the new Lakers center only trails Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama in the latter statistical category. But, as many fans know, defensive success is team-wide and schematic-driven. Losing Ayton, James, Hayes, and Smart, who were all instrumental in executing Coach Redick's coverages, is not offset by that single acquisition.
With all of this said, ESPN projected the Lakers to have a lowly record in the Western Conference.
| 1. San Antonio Spurs | 62-20 |
| 2. Oklahoma City Thunder | 60-22 |
| T-3. Denver Nuggets | 51-31 |
| T-3. Houston Rockets | 51-31 |
| 5. Minnesota Timberwolves | 50-32 |
| 6. Los Angeles Lakers | 45-37 |
| 7. Portland Trail Blazers | 43-39 |
| 8. Phoenix Suns | 42-40 |
| 9. Golden State Warriors | 35-47 |
| 10. Utah Jazz | 34-48 |
Conference isn't bad at all for the Lakers. There are still some points of improvement to be made if they want to contend for a title. But this may be the rebuilding year that Doncic and Co. need to figure out their identity.
Being touted as 'disappointing' may be too harsh, even for the Lakers, but they have all that it takes to surpass these projections.
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