Turn off the part of your brain that enjoys tough defensive battles, and just enjoy what should be among the wildest games of the first round.
USF and Louisville have two of the highest-octane offenses in the country, and they’re almost certainly going to keep trading big scoring blows all game long.
The Bulls won 11 straight and 14 of the last 15 on the way to the American championship, and Louisville, who hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2017, got on a nice late run before being knocked out of the ACC Tournament by Miami.
Louisville vs USF Game Preview: The Highest Scoring Game in the First Round?
Louisville vs USF How To Watch
Date: Thursday, March 19
Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
Time: 1:30 pm ET
TV: TNT
Streaming: March Madness Live App, Paramount+, HBO Max
Teams: (6) Louisville 23-10, (11) USF 25-8
Louisville Rankings: KenPom 19 | NET 17
USF Rankings: KenPom 47 | NET 45
College Football Programs: Louisville keeps coming close to the top of the ACC under Jeff Brohm, and this year’s team is just below Miami in the conference.
Ohio State wide receiver coach Brian Hartline is taking over USF, as the program starts over after former head man Alex Golesh and most of the top players left for Auburn.
– CFN NCAA Tournament Schedule, Previews
Key Stats
– USF attempts and makes more free throws than anyone in college basketball, averaging over 27 attempts and 20 makes per game.
– Louisville scores – it led the ACC and was 20th in the nation, averaging close to 85 points per game. That matters because …
Why USF Will Win: The Bulls Score Lots and Lots of Points
There’s a problem playing Louisville if you don’t have the offense to keep up the pace.
The Cardinal offense scores a ton. USF averages a ton, plus a little bit more, averaging close to 88 points per game.
It isn’t great at making threes, but it keeps taking them. No one makes more free throws, the offense flies up and down the floor in a flash, and big man Izaiyah Nelson is a force on the boards and the interior.
Why Louisville Will Win: The Cardinals Will Happily Keep Up the Pace
Louisville has problems when teams start to slow things down a bit and control the tempo. It’s 3-7 when it doesn’t get to 75 points, but it’s 18-1 when scoring more than 80.
South Florida is 7-8 when giving up more than 75 points.
Louisville doesn’t care about fastbreak points – that’s not what it does – but it’ll move the ball around well, and it’ll hit plenty of threes. It led the ACC, averaging 11.5 threes per game, and …
Louisville vs USF Prediction, Betting Lines
How much will free throws really matter?
Again, the Bulls led the nation in free throws made, but the Cardinals are more efficient, hitting 77% when they get there. That’s how Louisville will survive and advance.
USF goes faster than Louisville, and it usually beats teams down the stretch with bulk free throws. However, it has a big fouling problem, and it’ll keep sending the Cardinals to the line in key stretches.
It’ll be a wild game with the ACC side pulling it out with a few more threes and frees.
(By the way, USF is 0-2 against power conference teams, giving up 104 to Alabama and 103 to Oklahoma State.)
Prediction: Louisville 91, USF 82
Consensus Line: Louisville -5.5, o/u: 165.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Meet the NCAA Tournament Seeds
No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 | No. 6
No. 7 | No. 8 | No. 9 | No. 10 | No. 11
No. 12 | No. 13 | No. 14 | No. 15 | No. 16
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Nebraska vs Troy Prediction and Preview: NCAA Tournament First Round
This story was originally published by College Football News on Mar 17, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.