Louisville or USF? How to pick 6 vs. 11 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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Pat Kelsey and the Louisville Cardinals enter the 2026 NCAA Tournament looking to go on a run.
Put in the loaded East Region with the No. 1 overall seed Duke, two-time national champion UConn, and Tom Izzo and Michigan State, just to name a few, it's clear the Cardinals have to play their best basketball to make a deep push. As a No. 6 seed heading to Buffalo, Louisville faces a dangerous first-round test against No. 11 South Florida, a team riding a 12-game winning streak.
The Cardinals enter the Big Dance with a 23-10 record and plenty of momentum after a resurgent second year under Kelsey. To navigate this region, Louisville will rely on its high-octane backcourt duo of Ryan Conwell and Mikel Brown Jr., both of whom earned All-ACC honors this season. While the East Region is filled with blue bloods and coaching legends, the Cardinals’ ability to rank in the top 25 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency makes them a trendy pick to reach the second weekend.
But, it starts with one game, and a matchup against South Florida is far from a "gimme." The Bulls’ 12-game winning streak isn't a fluke; they possess a relentless defense that could force Louisville into the kind of half-court slugfest Kelsey’s system usually tries to avoid. For the Cardinals to advance, Conwell and Brown Jr. have to be more than just high-volume scorers—they have to be disciplined protectors of the basketball against a USF team that thrives on live-ball turnovers.
If Louisville can survive the opening weekend in Buffalo, they have the metrics to hang with the blue bloods waiting in the wings. But in a region this deep, one cold shooting night or one lapses in defensive transition could mean an early flight home.
Here's a complete preview of the matchup.
MARCH MADNESS HQ:Live NCAA bracket | TV schedule | Printable bracket
Louisville vs. South Florida odds
The Cardinals are a favorite over a red-hot Bulls team heading into Thursday's matchup, according to DraftKings odds. Louisville is still searching for its first NCAA Tournament win under Kelsey, having lost to Creighton in 2025. South Florida will operate as the underdog despite coming in on a 11-game winning streak.
- Odds: Louisville -6.5
- Date: Thursday, Mar. 19
- Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Arena: Enterprise Arena, St. Louis, Missouri
WATCH: No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida on TNT with DirecTV
Louisville (23-10, 11-7 in ACC)
Louisville was one of the great surprises last season, improving from 8-24 to a comfortable NCAA Tournament bid. The Cardinals’ second season under Pat Kelsey went about the same way, but this time, it was mildly disappointing at the very least. Louisville struggled against high-level competition, going 1-8 against Quad 1A competition despite adding numerous shooters in the portal and bringing in freshman Mikel Brown Jr.
Whether Louisville can win a first round game might come down to matchup, but this team has at least proven it can beat non-elite competition. It could all come down to Brown, who missed nine games with injury but can be lethal when healthy. The Cardinals are 9-1 when Brown shoots better than 40 percent from the field, and he proved against NC State that he can put the team on his back with 45 points in a 41-point win.
If Brown struggles or just isn’t healthy enough to play after missing the ACC Tournament, so much of the pressure is on former Xavier guard Ryan Conwell to score. Conwell isn’t shooting the ball as well as he did the last two seasons, but he’s a fourth-year player who can get hot on any given night.
Louisville shoots close to 36 percent from deep, which is top-100 nationally but not quite what was expected from a team with so many shooters. The Cardinals do rebound the ball well, with half of their rotation 6-8 or taller, but they turn the ball over far more than most of their top ACC counterparts such as Duke, Virginia and North Carolina.
Cincinnati and SMU are the only teams particularly close to the NCAA Tournament that Louisville has held under 70 points this season. While not a bad defensive team, the Cardinals can’t expect to lock down opponents in the big dance, putting pressure on Conwell and Brown to shoot the ball well. —Dan Treacy
- NET ranking: 15th
- KenPom ranking: 19th
- Quad 1 record: 7-10
- Quad 2 record: 5-0
- Quad 3 record: 4-0
- Quad 4 record: 7-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 26th
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 19th
Key players
Ryan Conwell, G, Sr. (6-4, 195): 18.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.5 apg
Mikel Brown Jr., G, Fr. (6-5, 190): 18.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.7 apg
J’Vonne Hadley, G, Sr. (6-6, 200): 11.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.7 apg
Isaac McKneely, G, Sr. (6-4, 179): 10.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 38.1% 3-pt
Sananda Fru, F, Jr. (6-11, 145): 9.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.4 bpg
SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)
South Florida (25-8, 15-3 in American)
USF is an example of how a team can grow up over the course of a season. The Bulls, in year one under Bryan Hodgson, have won 17 of their last 19 games and haven’t lost by more than one possession since mid-December. This is a team no one wants to see in the NCAA Tournament.
Experience and continuity matter in March. Hogdson is in his first season at USF, but he brought what was already a collection of talented players over from Arkansas State and surrounded them with even more talent. Once this group regained its mojo, it became one of the best mid-majors in the country.
The Bulls rank second in the nation in rebounds, led by big Izaiyah Nelson, and those second chance opportunities on the offensive end have made a major difference for what isn’t the most efficient offense. USF generates the absolute most opportunities possible for itself. Despite having only a couple strong shooters, the Bulls get those second chances off of offensive rebounds and force turnovers better than almost every team in the nation.
Perimeter defense has been hit-or-miss for USF, but the Bulls hold opponents to about 46 percent on 2-point shots, a top-30 mark nationally. Don’t be alarmed by USF’s 76.3 points per game allowed. The Bulls play at one of the highest paces in the nation, so opposing teams are naturally going to have opportunities to score.
Whether they are allowing 85 points or 60, USF has proven over these last two months it can match the playstyle of any opponent – and Hodgson, one of the nation’s fastest rising coaches – is the biggest reason. —Dan Treacy
- NET ranking: 45th
- KenPom ranking: 48th
- Quad 1 record: 3-3
- Quad 2 record: 5-3
- Quad 3 record: 7-2
- Quad 4 record: 9-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 61st
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 40th
Key players
Wes Enis, G, Jr. (6-2, 200): 16.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.5 apg
Izaiyah Nelson, F, Sr. (6-10, 212): 15.8 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 1.3 bpg
Joseph Pinion, G, Sr. (6-5, 190): 14.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 38.3% 3-pt
Josh Omojafo, G, Sr. (6-5, 200): 11.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.8 apg
CJ Brown, G, So. (6-2, 175): 11.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4.8 apg
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
Louisville vs. South Florida prediction
If Louisville is healthy, it has a chance to go on a deep run. It starts with Mikel Brown Jr., the five-star freshman point guard who has been the focal point of the Cardinals' offense when available. After a nagging back injury forced him to miss the entire ACC Tournament, his return for the Big Dance is the ultimate wild card. Brown is a top-10 NBA prospect for a reason—his ability to facilitate and his explosive scoring, highlighted by an ACC freshman record 45-point performance earlier this season, give Louisville a ceiling that most No. 6 seeds simply don't have.
On the other side, South Florida isn't your typical No. 11 seed. The Bulls enter on a 12-game winning streak and feature one of the nation’s most prolific breakout stars in Wes Enis. The junior guard has been a revelation since transferring from the Division II ranks, setting a USF single-season record with over 100 made 3-pointers. Enis thrives on volume and carries a "microwave" scoring ability that can shift the momentum of a game in a matter of minutes. If he gets hot from the perimeter early, he can force Louisville out of its defensive shell and turn this into the kind of high-scoring track meet that favors the Bulls’ up-tempo style.
Prediction: Louisville 81, USF 74. While Enis is capable of keeping the Bulls in the game with his perimeter shooting, a healthy Brown Jr. alongside All-ACC guard Conwell is simply too much firepower for USF to contain. Expect Brown to show some early rust before settling in to lead a balanced attack. Louisville’s ACC-tested depth should eventually wear down the Bulls, leading to a 10-point victory and Pat Kelsey’s first tournament win at the helm.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
History of 6 vs. 11 upsets in NCAA Tournament
In 2025, the trend of double-digit danger continued as Drake pulled off a 67-57 win over Missouri to keep the "11-over-6" tradition alive for the fourth consecutive year.
As past tournaments have proven, Cinderella runs can start in this particular matchup. Below is a breakdown of the upset wins 11-seeds have enjoyed over 6-seeds in recent history:
| Year | Result |
| 2025 | No. 11 Drake, No. 6 Missouri |
| 2024 | North Carolina State 80, Texas Tech 67 |
| Duquesne 71, BYU 67 | |
| Oregon 87, South Carolina 73 | |
| 2023 | Pittsburgh 59, Iowa State 41 |
| 2022 | Michigan 75, Colorado State 63 |
| Notre Dame 78, Alabama 64 | |
| Iowa State 59, LSU 54 | |
| 2021 | UCLA 73, BYU 62 |
| Syracuse 78, San Diego State 62 | |
| 2019 | Ohio State 62, Iowa State 59 |
| 2018 | Loyola Chicago 64, Miami (Fla.) 62 |
| Syracuse 57, TCU 52 | |
| 2017 | Rhode Island 84, Creighton 72 |
| USC 66, SMU 65 | |
| Xavier 76, Maryland 65 | |
| 2016 | Northern Iowa 75, Texas 72 |
| Gonzaga 68, Seton Hall 52 | |
| Wichita State 65, Arizona 55 | |
| 2015 | Dayton 66, Providence 53 |
| UCLA 60, SMU 59 |
Dan Treacy contributed to this article.