Pictured: Avery Johnson throws a pass
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Kansas Jayhawks take on the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, KS. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Kansas State is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -198. The total is set at 55.5 points.
Here’s my Kansas vs. Kansas State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 17, 2026.
- Kansas vs. Kansas State Pick: Kansas State -4.5 (Play to -7)
My Kansas State vs. Kansas best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Kansas vs. Kansas State Odds
- Kansas vs Kansas State point spread: Kansas State -4.5 (-110), Kansas +4.5 (-110)
- Kansas vs Kansas State over/under: 55.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Kansas vs Kansas State moneyline: Kansas +164, Kansas State -198
Last week, Kansas played its first true road game of the season. (Note: it played in London against Arizona State in Week 3 as the home team.)
What a first road test of the season it was for young Isaiah Marshall, as he had to play in one of the Big 12’s most daunting environments, Rice-Eccles Stadium.
He threw for 333 yards, due in part to Utah completely shutting down the Kansas run game, but he added to his season giveaway total with his fourth interception.
Marshall made headlines with some pretty dastardly choices against Missouri and has thrown at least one interception in three of his four FBS games. Now it’s back to the road to play in another one of college football’s tougher environments in Manhattan, Kansas.
Kansas should be able to get the run game going again against a bad run defense in rival Kansas State. But there’s reason for concern on the road, as Lance Leipold is just 14-25-1 ATS (.359) as a road ‘dog in his career (8-14 at KU).
No. 2 running back Yasin Willis also suffered a season-ending injury to close September — though Kansas was able to run for a ridiculous 480 yards on Middle Tennessee State without him (that number came crashing down to 58 against Utah).
Kansas commits too many turnovers and penalties — especially given its roster talent — to remain competitive in the Big 12 this year. There are no obvious wins remaining, though the Jayhawks appear to be a favorite in the market on certain weeks.
It seems Kansas State is a depreciating asset.
It began the season 3-0 with a +106 point margin, but all three wins have aged poorly — Washington State is off to a 1-5 start and benched its quarterback, Tulane is far worse than expected and 68 of those points were in a 71-3 blowout of vastly outmanned Nicholls.
But that 3-0 turned into 3-2 quickly with back-to-back losses to open Big 12 play. The first was to Cincinnati, 31-26, where the Wildcats forfeited 271 yards on the ground and, the week after, lost 35-16 to Houston, allowing 233 yards on the ground.
Kansas State’s 3-2 ranks 69th in the country, per ESPN’s Strength of Record metrics.
The Wildcats took two massive blows to the lineup before the season even began. All-Big 12 left tackle John Pastore and starting guard George Fitzpatrick both suffered season-ending injuries in camp.
Regardless, the Wildcats landed on the Joe Moore Award midseason top 25 list Wednesday. Kansas State ranks inside the top 40 in rushing, and QB Avery Johnson has only been sacked twice.
The defense is of legitimate concern. As mentioned, it turns into Swiss cheese against the run and isn’t good enough on late downs (allowing a third-down conversion on 40.4% of attempts, 90th nationally).
Fortunately, Kansas State avoids Utah and West Virginia (the Big 12’s best rushing attacks), but it doesn’t appear that an elite rushing game is needed to pile up the yards.
The Sunflower Showdown is the Big 12’s oldest rivalry. Kansas and Kansas State have met 123 times and every single year since 1911. The Jayhawks are nursing a 64-54-5 series lead, but Kansas State has won the last 17 meetings and 29 of the last 33.
Even with Kansas’ best teams of the last two decades (2022-23), Kansas State remained Big Brother.
It hasn’t really been close, either — Kansas has only ended within a score four times since 2009. Last year, Kansas State rolled Kansas, 41-17, in Lawrence.
But the past is the past, and bettors have loaded up on the Jayhawks for this game. Kansas opened this summer at +7.5, the lookahead line climbed to +9.5 before Week 5, and re-opened at +8.5.
And since then, Kansas has been bet all the way down to +4.5. Action Network PRO tabs plenty of sharp moves and lots of money on Kansas.
It’s sage advice to bet games in isolation. After all, last game’s result doesn’t matter this year when the rosters and most of the coaching staffs turned over.
But with so much data in this rivalry — with two decades of consistent results through roster and coaching turnover — one thing remains consistent: Kansas State beats Kansas.
It gets a major home-field advantage boost, Leipold hasn’t shown the ability to win as a road ‘dog with any frequency, Kansas’ choppy schedule this year leads to weekly irregularity, and coach Collin Klein understands the rivalry.
There are a few line movements I vehemently disagree with this week, and this is one of them.
Pick: Kansas State -4.5 (Play to -7)