A win over a top-20 team, no matter how stressful, has moved Mizzou up in the latest March Madness projections.
Missouri basketball (18-8, 8-5 SEC) survived a furious comeback attempt from Vanderbilt on Wednesday night, as the Commodores tracked the Tigers down from a 21-point lead to get a half-court heave, which was an inch from falling, to nearly win the game.
Mizzou needed the win. The latest March Madness projections paint a much more favorable picture than the Tigers’ pre-Vandy outlook.
Here’s what Missouri’s current tournament résumé looks like, and a glimpse at where the experts currently have the Tigers seeded and tabbed to travel for March Madness. All of the outlets’ projections were updated on the morning of Friday, Feb. 20.
Current Missouri basketball NCAA Tournament résumé for 2026 March Madness
Missouri’s NET ranking: No. 59
Quad 1 record: 4-4
Quad 2 record: 3-4
Quad 3 record: 3-0
Quad 4 record: 8-0
Missouri has moved up seven spots in the NET rankings between Tuesday, Feb. 17, and Friday, Feb. 20 and now is ranked No. 59 nationally.
The quadrant system accounts for the game’s location and the opposing team’s NET ranking. Quad 1 games, for instance, are at home against teams ranked Nos. 1-30 in the NET, on a neutral court against teams ranked Nos. 1-50, and on the road against teams ranked Nos. 1-75.
Missouri’s win over Vanderbilt qualified as a Quad 1 victory, evening the Tigers’ record at 4-4 in those matchups. Mizzou will face Arkansas on Saturday in Fayetteville, and the Razorbacks, ranked No. 18 in the NET, will present another Q1 chance.
ESPN: Missouri basketball is going to Dayton
ESPN currently has Missouri starting its March Madness bid a little early and against a somewhat familiar coach.
Joe Lunardi at ESPN now projects Missouri to make the field as an 11-seed heading to Dayton, Ohio, for a First Four matchup. In his latest projections, the Tigers face USC in one of the opening games of the tournament. The Trojans are coached by Eric Musselman, who previously was Arkansas’ head coach.
Also heading to Dayton in ESPN’s latest forecast: Santa Clara and UCLA.
The four 10-seeds at ESPN include two from the SEC: Texas A&M, Auburn, UCF and Ohio State. Mizzou has wins over both the Aggies and Auburn in SEC play.
CBS Sports: All-Missouri matchup with SLU
Now, here’s a fun one.
CBS Sports, after weeks of listing Missouri as a First Four team, has bumped the Tigers up to the 10-seed line. The outlet currently projects an all-Missouri Round of 64 battle, with the Tigers taking on 7-seed Saint Louis in the Midwest Region.
The Billikens, coached by Josh Schertz, are 24-2 this season. Their losses were a one-point defeat at Stanford in November and a five-point loss to Rhode Island this past Tuesday. SLU is the favorite to win the A-10.
Missouri last played its in-state rival in December 2001.
Impartiality aside for a moment, we’re really rooting for this to work out. What a tremendously fun game this would be for the Show-Me State.
On3: Tigers to Dayton
James Fletcher III at On3 currently has Mizzou projected for a First Four game in Dayton. In his latest prognostication, the Tigers would face UCF as an 11-seed, the last team in the tournament.
On3 also has New Mexico and UCLA battling in the First Four for a spot in the Round of 64. The outlet has Texas A&M, Georgia, Santa Clara and Ohio State as the final four byes and 10-seeds. So, the race to the finish in the SEC is going to be quite interesting.
Bart Torvik: March Madness chance rises
The analytics site Bart Torvik currently gives Mizzou a 61.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as of Feb. 20, which is based on 10,000 simulations run through its T-Ranketology ‘TourneyCast’ projections.
That is up from 27.5% this past Tuesday. That’s a sharp rise. Even before falling at Texas, on the back of a three-game winning streak, MU’s chances in Torvik’s simulations climbed only as high as 48.9%. Holding on at Vanderbilt, no matter how ugly, really mattered for Missouri.
If we stretch Torvik’s simulations out into a bracket, that makes Mizzou an 11-seed and Dayton-bound, which is a common theme this week.
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: How high did Missouri basketball climb in March Madness projections this week?