After taking a step forward with a midweek win at Texas A&M, Missouri basketball missed a massive opportunity to seriously bolster its March Madness résumé on its home floor over the weekend.
The Tigers (17-8, 7-5 SEC) lost 85-68 to Texas on Saturday night at Mizzou Arena, giving up major ground in an NCAA Tournament bubble matchup.
That has given Dennis Gates’ team a steep hill to climb in the final stretch of the regular season. But, despite the disappointing loss, it’s not an impossible task.
Here’s what Missouri’s current tournament résumé looks like, and a glimpse at where the experts currently have the Tigers seeded and tabbed to travel for March Madness. All of the outlets’ projections were updated on the morning of Tuesday, Feb. 17.
Current Missouri basketball NCAA Tournament résumé for 2026 March Madness
Missouri’s NET ranking: No. 66
Quad 1 record: 3-4
Quad 2 record: 3-4
Quad 3 record: 3-0
Quad 4 record: 8-0
After splitting its week with a one-point road win at Texas A&M and a home loss to Texas, Missouri dropped four spots in the NET rankings between Tuesday, Feb. 10, and Tuesday, Feb. 17 and now is ranked No. 66 in the nation.
The quadrant system accounts for the location of the game and the opposing team’s NET ranking. Quad 1 games, for instance, are at home against teams ranked Nos. 1-30 in the NET, on a neutral court against teams ranked Nos. 1-50, and on the road against teams ranked Nos. 1-75.
Missouri faces Vanderbilt at home on Wednesday and Arkansas on the road Saturday. Both the Commodores and the Razorbacks are ranked top 20 in the NET and will be Quad 1 opportunities for Mizzou.
USA Today lists Missouri basketball among ‘First Four Out’
Eddie Timanus, Erick Smith and Paul Myerberg at USA Today left Missouri in their ‘First Four Out’ category, placing the Tigers as the third team out of the field.
That makes Mizzou the first SEC team left out of the Big Dance in their projections.
USA Today’s last four teams into the field are currently Georgia, UCLA, Ohio State and Santa Clara. It’s worth keeping an eye on all of the above teams until Selection Sunday. They make up Mizzou’s primary competitors for an NCAA Tournament berth.
ESPN: Missouri basketball is ‘First Team Out’
Missouri is the bubble team at ESPN at present.
Joe Lunardi at ESPN had Mizzou as the 68th and final team going dancing before the Tigers faced Texas, but he has dropped them one pivotal spot since the Tigers’ loss to Texas. Missouri is now the first team out of the field in Lunardi’s updated projection on Tuesday, Feb. 17.
ESPN’s last four teams into the field are UCLA, Santa Clara, San Diego State and TCU.
Texas A&M and Georgia are among the ‘Last Four Byes,’ or 10-seeds in the tournament field in ESPN's new projection.
CBS Sports: First Four appearance in Dayton
CBS Sports is the outlier this week, as it has Missouri in the 68-team field. The Tigers' inclusion still comes with a trip to Dayton, Ohio, for the First Four as an 11-seed.
The latest CBS Sports Bracketology model has tabbed Mizzou as one of the last four teams into the field, meaning the Tigers would be an 11-seed and off to Dayton, Ohio, for a matchup against San Diego State. TCU and Saint Mary’s are the other teams going to Dayton in this projection for a de facto play-in game.
Bart Torvik: March Madness chance drops
The analytics site Bart Torvik currently gives Mizzou a 27.5% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as of Feb. 17, which is based on 10,000 simulations run through its T-Ranketology ‘TourneyCast’ projections.
That is down from 32.2% one week ago. MU’s chances climbed as high as 48.9% after its win over South Carolina this past Wednesday.
That places Missouri as the fourth team out of the field, which would make it the top-rated SEC team left out of the field in Torvik’s simulation.
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Missouri basketball March Madness bracketology after Texas loss