Is this the year when Iowa State makes a major NCAA Tournament run?
It’s been great under TJ Otzelberger over the last five years, but the program hasn’t been able to get out of the second weekend since 2000. This year’s team shoots well enough to get on a hot streak and do something special, but first, it has to sidestep the Tennessee State landmine.
The Tigers haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since 1994, and they’re still looking for their first win.
The Ohio Valley Conference champion is full of tough veterans who know how to play. This should be more than just a 15-seed trying to look okay against a No. 2 seed. This bunch forces enough mistakes for the Cyclones to worry.
The winner gets either Kentucky or Santa Clara.
Iowa State vs Tennessee State Game Preview: Who’ll Steal The Game?
Iowa State vs Tennessee State How To Watch
Date: Friday, March 20
Venue: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
Time: 2:50 pm ET
TV: CBS
Streaming: March Madness Live App, Paramount+, HBO Max
Teams: (2) Iowa State 27-7, (15) Tennessee State 23-9
Iowa State Rankings: KenPom 6 | NET 6
Tennessee State Rankings: KenPom 186 | NET 172
College Football Programs: Iowa State isn’t totally starting over after former head coach Matt Campbell and most of the top players left for Penn State, but … yeah, it’s starting over under new coach Jimmy Rogers.
Tennessee State could use a reboot, too, especially on offense, after a rough 2-10 season.
– CFN NCAA Tournament Schedule, Previews
Key Stats
– Iowa State forces mistakes. It’s fourth in the nation in turnover margin, helped by over 15 takeaways a game.
– Tennessee State knows how to attack the ball, too. It’s seventh in the country with 9.4 steals per game.
Why Tennessee State Will Win: Turn this Into A Free Throw Contest
The Tigers have to hang around long enough for this to come down to free throws.
It’s one of the strangest quirks about this year’s Iowa State team. It’s amazing at hitting the three, is great from inside, and somehow, it can’t hit free throws.
It only got to the line eight times against Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament, and made just four – and lost by two. It made just 2-of-8 free throws in a mid-February game against TCU, and lost by seven.
Tennessee State makes 77% of its free throws and proved over the last month of the season that it can hold up under pressure.
Why Iowa State Will Win: The Cyclones Will Make Too Many Shots
Tennessee State doesn’t take enough three pointers, and it doesn’t make them when it takes them.
It’s great at getting on the move, is wonderful at taking the ball away, and it wants to turn this into a bit of a track meet at times. Here’s the problem – when it doesn’t have control of the game, Iowa State will make baskets.
The Cyclones don’t turn the ball over enough to let the Tigers come up with easy points. They’re great at moving the ball around, and forget it when they get open shots.
Milan Momcilovic is one of the nation’s best outside shooters, the team overall is great from three, and Tennessee State can’t keep pace once the shots start falling.
Iowa State vs Tennessee State Prediction, Betting Lines
For all of the good things Tennessee State does, it’s the ability to come up with takeaways that changes games. It won’t be able to do that enough to keep up the pace.
Iowa State isn’t above the occasional misfire game when things just don’t fall, but it has the defense to clamp down when needed.
At some point, the free throw shooting issue will knock the Cyclones out of the tournament, but it won’t be Friday.
Prediction: Iowa State 84, Tennessee State 59
Consensus Line: Iowa State -24.5, o/u: 149.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2.5
Meet the NCAA Tournament Seeds
No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 | No. 6
No. 7 | No. 8 | No. 9 | No. 10 | No. 11
No. 12 | No. 13 | No. 14 | No. 15 | No. 16
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Virginia vs Wright State Prediction and Preview: NCAA Tournament First Round
This story was originally published by College Football News on Mar 19, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.