The Big Ten is guaranteed to have at least one team in the Final Four after being shut out last season.
It’s in Indianapolis this year, and no matter who wins between Iowa and Illinois, there will be a massive base of crowd support next weekend.
Can Iowa be better than it was in the 75-68 home loss to the Illini back in mid-January?
It knocked out the South’s No. 1 seed and defending national champion Florida, slipped by Clemson, and it out-Nebraskad, Nebraska in a 77-71 win to get here.
Meanwhile, Illinois has been amazing, with what might be the best win in the Brad Underwood era in a 65-55 victory over last year’s runner-up Houston in Houston.
The Hawkeyes haven’t been in the Elite Eight since 1987, and they haven’t made the Final Four since 1980. In the first season under head coach Ben McCollum, a win here would rocket the program into the stratosphere.
This is the second Elite Eight in three years under Brad Underwood, but the program hasn’t been ot the Final Four since the 2005 team that lost the national title to North Carolina.
Illinois vs Iowa Game Preview: Can the Hawkeyes Take the Rematch?
Illinois vs Iowa How To Watch
Date: Saturday, March 28
Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Time: 6:09 pm ET
TV: TBS/truTV
Streaming: March Madness Live App, Paramount+, HBO Max
Teams: (3) Illinois 27-8, (9) Iowa 24-12
Football Series History: Illinois leads 39-38-2, but the last game was a 15-13 loss in 2023. In basketball, the Illini are 94-77 in the series.
NCAA Tournament Results
Illinois: 1st Round Penn 105-70 | 2nd Round VCU 76-55 | Sweet 16 Houston 65-55
Iowa: 1st Round Clemson 67-61 | 2nd Round Florida 73-72 | Sweet 16 Nebraska 77-71
– CFN NCAA Tournament Schedule, Previews
Key Stats
– Illinois struggled on the free-throw line against Houston, making just 12 of 21. Houston only shot two free throws, and made both of them.
– Iowa hit 43% from three in the win over Nebraska, and held the Huskers to 13-of-30 (34%) from the outside.
Why Iowa Will Win: Keep Making Shots
This is a good shooting Iowa team, but it’s not always great from three, and there’s nothing easy happening on the move. But lately, this bunch is killing it.
The Hawkeyes have some of the most fearless shooters still in the tournament, and it’s showing, making the key shots down the stretch against both Iowa and Nebraska while both opponents buckled.
Again, there aren’t any fastbreak points to speak of on a regular basis, and Iowa still hit over 50% from the field in four of its last five games. Illinois dominates the defensive glass, but that won’t matter if the Hawkeyes are on.
Why Illinois Will Win: Keep Playing Great Defense
Iowa doesn’t take a ton of threes, but wow, were they timely against Florida, and the 13 made against Nebraska were the second most all year behind a 14-three day against Western Michigan.
Shooting – and making – threes isn’t what Iowa does. It clamps down defensively, limits possessions, and makes teams play its style at tempo. But the team broke character against the Gators and Cornhuskers because it had to.
The defense is great, but the Hawkeyes were 21-1 when scoring more than 72 points. The Illinois D geared up against Houston, holding it to just 55 points and 34% from the floor.
How many times have the Illini allowed more than 72 points? 13, but the magic scoring mark to beat the Illini is 83 – they’re 0-7 when allowing that many or more, and 27-1 when they don’t.
Iowa has scored 83 points or more nine times, but it didn’t do it against any team in the NCAA Tournament, and hasn’t scored that many since early February. And …
Illinois vs Iowa Prediction, Betting Lines
Iowa couldn’t do much at home in the 75-69 early January loss to Illinois until it was too late.
This only works if the Illini go dead cold.
The Hawkeyes have the defenders to make Illinois work a little harder, but there’s too much talent, way too much size, and almost-certain top ten NBA pick Keaton Wagler has very, very subtly put together one whopper of an NCAA Tournament so far.
Iowa held up okay on the boards in the first meeting, but it had to work too hard to mount a late comeback. Its offense will try to get hot right away, and it’ll work, but the Illini talent will take over in the last ten minutes.
Illinois will hit the threes the Hawkeyes won’t.
Prediction: Illinois 75, Iowa 69
Consensus Line: Illinois -6.5, o/u: 138.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2.5
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Arizona vs Purdue Prediction and Preview: NCAA Tournament Elite Eight
This story was originally published by College Football News on Mar 27, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.