Remember when Illinois beat Duke by 26 points last September? I bet Duke does!
The Illini embarrassed the Blue Devils 45-19 in Durham last season, turning what was supposed to be a competitive non-conference matchup into a laugher. Duke eventually recovered and went on to win the ACC, while Illinois finished with nine wins and a victory over Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl. It was also one of those VERY rare wins for Illinois in non-conference play over a power conference team, and even rarer that it happened away from Champaign.
That sets the stage for what we’re about to get this weekend, when the Blue Devils make their trek to Memorial Stadium.
FanDuel thinks Illinois should be the favorite.
The opening odds had the Illini as 6.5-point favorites, with Illinois’ moneyline at -245 and Duke’s at +198. The over/under was set at 53.5 points, making for a projected score of roughly 30-23 in favor of the Illini.
The line has since moved to Illinois -5.5 (as of Wednesday night).
So, the obvious question: Can the Illini cover?
Uh, yeah. Especially if the defense shows some sort of pulse.
Illinois opened its 2026 season with a 42-23 win over UAB, and there were plenty of positives to take away from the performance.
Quarterback Katin Houser looked comfortable in his first start, throwing for three touchdowns (including that Hail Mary) and adding another score on the ground. The Illini offense showed plenty of explosiveness, and there is reason to believe Bret Bielema’s team can put up points again Saturday, even against a Manny Diaz-coached defense.
But I wouldn’t expect Illinois to put up six touchdowns against the Blue Devils.
Duke opened its season with a 17-3 victory over Tulane. It wasn’t exactly an offensive masterpiece, but Duke’s defense did its job and kept the Green Wave out of the end zone.
Illinois’ defense had some issues against UAB, particularly against the run. If running back Nate Sheppard can consistently move the football, the Illini could find themselves in a much closer game than last year’s matchup.
But home field advantage and a confident QB should be enough for Illinois to keep pace with Duke and win this one.
Give me Illinois -5.5.
Duke will be better than it was last September. I just don’t think it will be better enough.
Prediction: Illinois 31, Duke 20.
The Illini cover, get SIU next week, and let’s shock the world in Columbus at the end of the month.