The Michigan Wolverines have had one of the greatest seasons in recent history, according to KenPom, with a 37.59 rating. But they aren’t alone, as the Duke Blue Devils (38.90) and Arizona Wildcats (37.66) are also historically good this year.
With that in mind, we took a look at how teams with a KenPom rating north of 36 have done historically in the NCAA Tournament. Is there a precedent for KenPom superteams to perform well in the Big Dance?
2025 Duke Blue Devils (39.29)
The 2024-25 Blue Devils were a juggernaut led by Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel. They won both the ACC regular season championship as well as the ACC Tournament. As a 1-seed, the Blue Devils skated through their region with relative ease before finally meeting their match in the Final Four against Houston. Duke ended the season at third in the AP Poll.
2025 Houston Cougars (36.59)
As mentioned above, Houston was also a load to deal with during the 2025 season. The Cougars won both the Big 12 regular season championship as well as the Big 12 Tournament. Led by LJ Cryer and J’Wan Roberts, Houston was given the 1-seed in the Midwest Region and easily dispatched SIU Edwardsville before squeaking out close wins over 8-seed Gonzaga and 4-seed Purdue. the Courgars then romped Tennessee before knocking off Duke in the Final Four. The Cougars then lost the National Championship in heartbreaking fashion to the…
2025 Florida Gators (36.46)
The Gators were the 1-seed in the West Region in the 2025 tournament. On their way to the Final Four, they had a few blowout wins (16-seed Norfolk State and 4-seed Maryland) and a few close calls (8-seed UConn and 3-seed Texas Tech). Once in San Antonio, the Gators knocked off the No. 1 overall seed Auburn and the aforementioned Cougars to take home the crown.
2024 UConn Huskies (36.43)
The Huskies lost just three games all season long, one in the non-conference to Kansas and two in Big East play to Seton Hall and Creighton. Subsequently, that means UConn won both the Big East Tournament and the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies had a dominant run in the NCAA Tournament, which saw them win every single game by 14 or more points. Tristen Newton, Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan went on to play in the NBA and are having some success there.
2021 Gonzaga Bulldogs (36.48)
In 2021, Gonzaga put together one of the most well-rounded units we’ve seen in recent memory. Drew Timme, Jalen Suggs and Corey Kispert led the Bulldogs to a conference title in both the regular season and conference tournament (which is hardly anything new). In the postseason, Gonzaga romped through the West Region with blowout wins over 16-seed Norfolk State, 8-seed Oklahoma, 5-seed Creighton, and 6-seed USC. Things got tougher for them in the Final Four, but Gonzaga was able to get past 11-seed UCLA in overtime before falling to Baylor in the National Championship.
2015 Kentucky Wildcats (36.91)
Led by the Harrison twins and Karl-Anthony Townes, the 2015 Wildcats had an incredibly stacked roster. So much so that future NBA All-Star Devin Booker was coming off the bench. Kentucky won the SEC regular season and tournament crowns and earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats met very little resistance in the Midwest Region, as they dispatched 16-seed Hampton, 8-seed Cincinnati, 5-seed West Virginia and 3-seed Notre Dame. But they eventually lost in the Final Four to Wisconsin in an instant classic.
2001 Duke Blue Devils (37.32)
Speaking of loaded teams, the 2001 Duke roster featured the likes of Carlos Boozer, Shane Battier, Christ Duhon and Jay Williams. Duke completed the trifecta this season, winning the ACC regular season championship, ACC Tournament championship and NCAA Tournament. Focusing solely on their performance in March Madness, the Blue Devils won all six games by 10 or more points. In the National Championship, they knocked off Gilbert Arenas, Richard Jefferson and the Arizona Wildcats, 82-72.
1999 Duke Blue Devils (43.01)
According to KenPom, this team remains the gold standard when it comes to college basketball, as no team has ever finished the season in the 40s except for the ‘99 Blue Devils. Like the 2001 team above, this team oozed with NBA talent as it featured Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Trajan Langdon and Shane Battier.
However, somewhat surprisingly, this team failed to win it all. After smashing through the East Region with blowout wins over 16-seed Florida A&M, 9-seed Tulsa, 12-seed Southwest Missouri State and 6-seed Temple, Duke had to face Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans in the Final Four. Duke won that matchup, 68-62, before falling in a shocker to Rip Hamilton’s UConn Huskies.
Unsurprisingly, the precedent is very good here for Michigan’s chances this month. Of the eight teams listed above, all eight made the Final Four, with three winning the National Championship. Keep in mind, two of these teams couldn’t win it all by our criteria, as three of the teams above are from the same season (2024-25).
While this isn’t shocking — as teams with high KenPom ratings are obviously very, very good — it is noteworthy that not a single team suffered an upset earlier in the tournament than the Final Four. This leads us to draw the conclusion that this year’s Duke, Arizona and Michigan teams are relatively upset-proof, barring injury of course.