KenPom has long been the standard for advanced college basketball metrics. Ever since the site started tracking possession metrics in the early 2000’s they’ve been one of the go-to sites for college basketball aficionados and stat geeks. In recent years, EvanMiya and BartTorvik have also risen to prominence in the advanced metrics world and also do good work (in my humble opinion). Still, KenPom tends to be on an open tab on my phone from late October through April.
KenPom released his preseason rankings a couple days ago, giving our first glimpse on what the metrics expect out of Michael Malone’s first season as coach of the Heels. And to be honest, they don’t see the Carolina as a serious contender this season. The initial KenPom rankings have UNC ranked as the 37th best team in the country; as a reference point, last year’s squad wound up ranked 32nd. KenPom has UNC as having the 37th most efficient offense and the 42nd most efficient defense. They also have UNC averaging 71.8 possessions per game, which would put it roughly in the middle of the country in terms of game pace.
Breaking down the actual predictions, KenPom predicts a 21-11 overall record, with a 10-8 mark in ACC play. This would have UNC finish in a three-way tie for fifth in the conference with Clemson and Virginia Tech. KenPom predicts that the home game against Arkansas will be UNC’s best win, with the home game against Miami being a close second. Taking a wider view of the ACC, KenPom has Duke as the expected best team in the ACC and starting out as the overall number one team in his ratings. The rankings see the majority of the ACC as a pack of middling teams; 12 of the conference’s teams are ranked between 50-101.
Recently, it felt like UNC has gone into more seasons overrated than not. Part of this is that despite Carolina’s recent struggles, the UNC name still carries a lot of weight. It’s understandable; the Heels have a brand that still tends to get the benefit of the doubt that regardless of the previous year’s results, UNC will be good in the coming year. This hasn’t been the case this year, as many preseason top 25 lists don’t mention Carolina. Given all the turmoil around the program (new coach, almost complete roster turnover) it’s also not surprising that the national media — and even the metrics — have modest expectations for this year’s team.
Maybe I’m looking through Carolina blue colored glasses, but I feel like this might be a rare year that the Heels enter the season as an overlooked squad. Admittedly this is purely speculation on my part, but I feel like Malone will have this team better than the 37th best team in the country by season’s end. One (very minute) data point to support this: USC is ranked in several preseason top 25 lists and ranked ahead of UNC in the initial KenPom ratings, yet the Heels looked every bit as good as the Trojans in their exhibition game.
Of course, this is all just speculation until the real games kick off in early November. It’ll be interesting to see how these metrics look after a few games of data are in the books.