Florida State men’s basketball enters ACC tournament week with one path into the NCAA tournament.
Win it all.
It’s an all-or-nothing week for the program, which went from the bottom of the ACC standings in January to the eighth overall seed in the conference, winning 10 ACC games after an 0-5 start.
Earning a first-round bye in the conference tournament, the Seminoles (17-14, 10-8 ACC) will face No. 9 Cal on Wednesday, March 11, at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. A win against the Golden Bears sets up a game with No. 1 Duke, a tall task for a program trying to play its way into the tournament. But that’s March for you.
So, let’s dive into why FSU can and cannot win the ACC tournament.
Why FSU men’s basketball can win the ACC tournament
Let’s cut right to the point: the Seminoles have been one of the hottest teams in the country heading into the conference tournament. FSU won 10 of the program’s last 13 games of the season, which flipped a 7-11 and 0-5 ACC record into a 17-14 record with 10 ACC victories.
There is value in playing your best basketball ahead of the tournament, and that’s where the Seminoles are. The 63-61 win over Cal in January was at the start of the program’s season turnaround, and FSU is a much different basketball team since then, which could help the Seminoles get by Cal.
Now, if FSU can win the first game, a date with Duke in the quarterfinals is daunting. However, FSU nearly upset Duke once this season, falling just short 91-87, in January, and that was a fully healthy Blue Devils team, which won’t be the case in the tournament. Both veteran guard Caleb Foster and big man Patrick Ngongba are set to miss the tournament, which could give FSU a window to an upset.
Robert McCray V is one of the league’s best guards, earning All-ACC third team honors, and he, alongside Chauncey Wiggins, can carry the program to a string of upsets against Duke, and potentially North Carolina or Clemson in the semifinals. The Seminoles as a team have improved defensively, in rebounding, and are far more efficient offensively in comparison to the start of the season, which bodes well for a tournament run.
As is the way in March, if FSU can get into the final, who says they can’t win it all?
Why FSU men’s basketball won’t win the ACC tournament
Now that we’ve laid out why the Seminoles could win, let’s take a look at why they won’t win the tournament.
Cal is playing for the program’s tournament life, sitting on the bubble and needing a handful of wins to make it to the Big Dance. That in itself is something that could spoil the Seminoles’ magical season turnaround.
However, even if they get by the Golden Bears, Duke awaits them, and even with the injuries, the Blue Devils still have ACC Player of the Year Cam Boozer and are No. 1 in the nation for a reason. Get past that, and North Carolina, Clemson, or Virginia Tech likely awaits the program in the semifinals. A championship game against Virginia, Miami, or Louisville is no easy task either.
Take the competition out of it, and FSU’s downfall could be their own shot-making, or lack thereof.
The Seminoles consistently go minutes without scoring, which allows leads to shrink or comeback efforts to fall short. And with inconsistencies at the free-throw line, which have improved to end the season, an offense that goes cold for long stretches of the game is the last thing FSU can afford in a win-or-go-home scenario.
Predicting FSU men’s basketball’s ACC tournament
Now, let’s dive into the prediction.
The Seminoles will win a couple of tournament games, including an upset of Duke, but the magic will run out in the semifinals against North Carolina.
FSU’s upset of Duke will be enough to get FSU into the bubble conversation, but they’ll miss out on an at-large bid to the tournament.
2026 ACC tournament bracket, schedule
Tuesday, March 10 (Session 1)
Game 1 – No. 10 seed Stanford vs. No. 15 seed Pitt, 2 p.m.
Game 2 – No. 11 seed SMU vs. No. 14 seed Syracuse, 4:30 p.m.
Game 3 – No. 12 seed Virginia Tech vs. No. 13 seed Wake Forest, 7 p.m.
Wednesday, March 11 (Session 2)
Game 4 – No. 7 seed N.C. State vs. Stanford-Pitt winner, Noon
Game 5 – No. 6 seed Louisville vs. SMU-Syracuse winner, 2:30 p.m.
Wednesday, March 11 (Session 3)
Game 6 – No. 9 seed California vs. No. 8 seed Florida State, 7 p.m.
Game 7 – No. 5 seed Clemson vs. Virginia Tech-Wake Forest winner, 9:30 p.m.
Thursday, March 12 (Session 4)
Game 8 – No. 2 Virginia vs. Game 4 winner, Noon
Game 9 – No. 3 Miami vs. Game 5 winner, 2:30 p.m.
Thursday, March 12 (Session 5)
Game 10 – No. 1 Duke vs. No. 8/9 winner 7 p.m.
Game 11 – No. 4 North Carolina vs. Game 7 winner, 9:30 p.m.
Friday, March 13 (Session 6)
Game 12 – Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 13 – Game 10 winner vs. Game 11 winner, 9:30 p.m.
Saturday, March 14 (Session 7) – Championship Game
Game 14 – 8:30 p.m.
Liam Rooney covers Florida State athletics for the Tallahassee Democrat. Contact him via email at LRooney@gannett.com or on Twitter @__liamrooney.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Why Florida State men’s basketball can, cannot win ACC tournament