Ken Pomeroy just published a newsletter talking about the value of exhibition games in college basketball.
“We’re a few days away from the season starting but we’ve already had a bunch of contests with all of the trappings of a regular season game. By Sunday, there will have been over 200 exhibitions played with real refs in front of real crowds, with real fans and (for some games) real TV coverage and real post-game media scrums. Even real fights and technical fouls. And in another case, three rotation players suffering game-ending injuries.
But most people dismiss the exhibition game as a contest void of information on the team level. Remember last season when Kentucky beat Purdue and Cincinnati won at Michigan? Clearly proof that exhibitions are meaningless, the preseason-haters will say.
On some level, that thought makes sense. Exhibitions should be a time for coaches to experiment, give all of their bench players some run, and let the starters take it easy, if they even play at all. That’s how it works in the NBA. But all available evidence points to the opposite at the college level. Starters get major minutes, and teams regularly run out a rotation that they’ll be using when the games start. Coaches, players, and fans obviously care about winning these games.“
So What Have We Learned?
We have detailed stats from 2 of our 3 exhibition games, Mississippi State and Lenoir-Rhyne. Two wildly different teams, Lenior-Rhyne is Division II and preseason predictions have MSU finishing in the bottom quarter of the SEC. So drawing conclusions based on those two are iffy, however, as KP suggested, I think we saw the rotation.
This is the substitution pattern for the first 10 minutes of each half versus Mississippi State.
Takeaways:
- You will notice that in both halves, Coach Gainey played 10 guys in the first 10 minutes.
- The substitution pattern is as expected, Adams for Edmead, Hammond for Adams, Keene for McNeil, Yalaho for Lubin, and Jurkovic/Hall for Evans.
- Lubin switched to center in both halves
With 2:50 left, MSU led 71-65. This is the substitution pattern for the end of the game.
NOTE: Edmead fouled out at the 1:18 mark.
Takeaways – Smart Substitutions:
- When Yalaho subbed in, he picked up a defensive rebound a few seconds later
- When Hammond subbed in, he picked up a rebound off a free throw immediately
- When Keene subbed in, he got a steal on the following possession
- All of the scoring in the last 2:50 was by McNeil and Lubin, with the exception of a free throw by Keene
This is the substitution pattern for the first 10 minutes of each half versus Lenoir-Rhyne.
NOTE: Hall was sick and did not play, allowing Wilkins to sub in sooner.
Takeaways:
- You will notice that in the first half, Coach Gainey played 10 guys in the first 10 minutes.
- The Wolfpack had a 39 point lead at the half, so he was able to sub in 11 players in the first 10 minutes of the second half
- The substitution pattern is more straightforward in this one.
- Lubin did not play center.
Minutes played
Conclusion:
It appears that Coach Gainey’s intent is to play a 10 man rotation. As everyone reading this is thinking, the depth normally gets shorter once conference play starts, and that might well be the case this season. But the ‘borderline’ players, Jurkovic, Keene, and Wilkins all add their own specific value. Jurkovic is a great shooter for a big man. Coach Gainey described Keene as a guy you want playing late in a game. And I’m a big believer in Wilkins, he got to show his stuff against Lenoir-Rhyne and there’s no putting that guy back in the box. He’s going to play.