Kevin Willard needed all of one season to get Villanova men’s basketball back into the NCAA Tournament. Apparently, that was enough for expectations to change pretty quickly on the Main Line.
Myron Medcalf of ESPN recently released his Big East ceiling and floor projections for the 2026-27 season, putting the Wildcats third in the conference behind only UConn and St. John’s — shocker.
Medcalf sees 26 wins and a trip to the Round of 32 as Villanova’s ceiling. But the much more interesting prediction is what he considers their floor.
Even in his worst-case scenario, Medcalf has Nova winning 22 games, finishing fourth in the conference, and making another NCAA Tournament appearance. It could be worse.
It says a lot about how differently Willard’s program is viewed heading into his second year at the helm.
The Wildcats entered last season having missed three straight NCAA Tournaments following Jay Wright’s retirement. Willard immediately ended that drought, going 24-9 and 15-5 in conference play before a disappointing first-round exit to Utah State in March. And it’s not like he gets to simply run it back with a similar roster.
All-Big East guard Acaden Lewis was among several players to leave through the transfer portal, forcing Willard and Co. to overhaul the roster around returning third-team All-Big East guard Tyler Perkins. Ohio State transfer Devin Royal, Oregon transfer Kwame Evans Jr., and international sensation Luigi Suigo headline the gaggle of Cats making their way to the Main Line.
With all the new moving parts, there are still plenty of question marks surrounding the team.
Even so, Medcalf still has Villanova ahead of likely tournament teams, such as Providence, Marquette, Creighton, and Xavier. Even at the low end of his projection, Nova remains a top-four Big East team, ready for whatever March Madness has in store.
That might be the biggest compliment Willard could receive entering his second season with a completely different roster.
A year ago, getting Villanova back to NCAA relevance was the goal — to be competitive in conference play and hopefully make it back to the tournament. Now, a 22-win season and another postseason appearance are the low-end for this team. That feels more like the Wildcats I’m used to watching.
Villanova obviously has bigger ambitions than sneaking into the bracket every March. That comes with coaching a program that won two national championships in the last 10 seasons. But Willard first had to make winning consistently feel normal again. If Medcalf’s projections are any indication, he might already be getting there.