ESPN's computer model, the Basketball Power Index, has changed its national title pick on Sunday morning.
Two games remain in the Elite Eight. Michigan will be taking on Tennessee in the first game of the day, while Duke will be taking on UConn in the second game of the day. The winners are off to the Final Four. Arizona and Illinois have already locked up their spots in the national semifinals.
Duke has been listed as the favorite to win it all, per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, but heading into Sunday's games, that is no longer the case.
ESPN's computer model has changed its pick on Sunday morning.
The Basketball Power Index now has No. 1 seed Arizona as the favorite to win it all. The Wildcats are being given a 30 percent chance of cutting down the nets. Arizona is the favorite heading into Sunday's games.
Duke, meanwhile, has a 25.6 percent chance to win it all – the second-highest odds of the teams remaining.
How does ESPN's Basketball Power Index work?
ESPN's BPI is a projection-based model.
"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily," ESPN wrote.
This story was originally published by The Spun on Mar 29, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add The Spun as a Preferred Source by clicking here.