The 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament will enter Day 4 on Sunday afternoon, March 22.
The first three days of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament have been rather chalky. There have been a few upsets – No. 12 seed High Point upsetting No. 5 Wisconsin, No. 11 seed Texas reaching the Sweet 16 – but for the most part, the top seeds have held strong and advanced.
Who is currently on track to reach the Final Four?
ESPN's computer model, the Basketball Power Index, has updated its Final Four prediction on Sunday morning. The prediction has changed since the start of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
ESPN's computer model is currently going with the following four teams to reach the NCAA Tournament semifinals:
- No. 1 seed Duke
- No. 2 seed Houston
- No. 1 seed Michigan
- No. 1 seed Arizona
ESPN has three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 seed currently reaching the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Final Four.
How does the BPI work?
The BPI is a projection-based system.
"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily," they write.
This story was originally published by The Spun on Mar 22, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add The Spun as a Preferred Source by clicking here.