Duke gets major preseason boost as college basketball rankings reveal surprising contenders originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The college basketball season is approaching, and one of the sport's most respected statistical models has already identified its early favorite.
Duke opens the 2026-27 season ranked No. 1 in the preseason KenPom ratings.The Blue Devils lead a talented group of contenders that includes Florida, Houston, Illinois and Arizona.
Those five programs occupy the top five positions in the initial ratings released ahead of the November 2 opening of the regular season.
However, the rankings also reveal several interesting developments that could shape the national championship conversation. Some traditional powers appear positioned for another strong season. Others enter with considerably more questions than their reputations might suggest.
Duke leads impressive preseason top five
Duke's position at No. 1 shows the model's expectations for the Blue Devils entering another season under Jon Scheyer. Florida follows at No. 2, giving the SEC one of the nation's strongest projected teams. Houston checks in at No. 3, followed by Illinois and Arizona.
Preseason KenPom rankings are live. Here's the top 60. Duke is No. 1—not Florida. Iowa State is 6! TTU is 12, presumably under the notion all the 5-for-5 guys are eligible. Reigning champs Michigan at 28. Highest-ranked mid-majors: Grand Canyon (44), Utah St (51), SLU (54). https://t.co/v9TAAbVfEO
— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) October 11, 2026
Iowa State ranks sixth, Michigan State seventh, Kansas eighth, Alabama ninth and Texas tenth.
The distribution highlights the strength of several major conferences.
The Big 12 places Houston, Arizona, Iowa State and Kansas among the top eight. The SEC has Florida, Alabama and Texas inside the top ten, with several additional programs close behind.
The ratings are based on projected team efficiency rather than simply ranking the most recognizable programs. That distinction makes them particularly useful when evaluating teams with significant roster turnover.
Gonzaga and Purdue create intriguing opening-night matchup
One of the most interesting early-season games will feature Gonzaga and Purdue. The teams are scheduled to meet November 2 in Las Vegas.
Gonzaga opens No. 14 in KenPom, while Purdue checks in at No. 24. The Bulldogs finished last season 31-4 and enter the new campaign with another offense expected to rank among the nation's most efficient.
Gonzaga opens seventh nationally in projected offensive efficiency. Purdue, meanwhile, will have an opportunity to make an immediate statement against a highly regarded opponent.
The matchup gives college basketball fans an early test between two programs with national recognition.
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UConn and Kentucky face different expectations
UConn enters the preseason ranked No. 11 after reaching the national championship game last season. The Huskies project as one of the country's strongest defensive teams, checking in sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Kentucky opens at No. 26, just outside KenPom's top 25. That position creates an interesting challenge for a program whose fan base expects to compete nationally every season.
Of course, preseason ratings are projections rather than guarantees. Transfers, injuries, player development and coaching adjustments will change the landscape throughout the season.
But the initial numbers provide an intriguing starting point. Duke enters as the statistical favorite. The question is whether the Blue Devils can maintain that position once the games begin.