Happy opening week of college basketball to everyone who has spent the offseason convincing themselves this is finally the year their team figures it out. The transfers fit, the freshmen are ready, the coach loves the depth, and there is still time to believe the exhibition problems were just things the coach wanted to work on. Enjoy this part.
Last season ended with Michigan beating UConn 69-63 for the national championship while making two 3-pointers. All that offensive talent, months of arguing about how good the Wolverines actually were, and they finished the job on a night when the jump shots barely showed up. If you followed along with my championship preview, you know where I landed on Michigan: The Wolverines were really, really good. Apparently, they didn't need to make jump shots to settle that argument.
Now we get to do it again, with new rosters, new reasons to get carried away and, in the most 2026 fashion, basketball fans have become part-time lawyers attempting to figure out if their newest 28-year-old addition will get to play.
Here are a couple of futures wagers I like.
Duke Blue Devils: How to bet them
Imagine waiting all offseason for college basketball to return, opening a futures article and getting told to bet Duke. Groundbreaking stuff. I'm passing on the favorite, but the roster deserves a little attention before I try to explain the fun stuff.
We have Duke No. 1 on both offense and defense in our preseason CBB projections. Patrick Ngongba II and John Blackwell already give head coach Jon Scheyer a pretty comfortable place to start, and now he gets to put 7-foot-2 freshman Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje next to Ngongba without having to keep both of them under the basket.
Boumtje Boumtje reclassified to get here early, and against Kansas he hit the second-half 3-pointer that put Duke back in front. He finished with nine rebounds and held his own against older players. Ngongba had 28 points and 10 rebounds, Blackwell added 23, and the freshman got to contribute without being asked to save anybody.
Scheyer can let him develop while Ngongba and Blackwell do the heavy lifting. What happens when Boumtje Boumtje gets comfortable? Ngongba is working inside, Blackwell needs attention, and now an opposing big has to decide whether to leave a 7-footer alone on the perimeter or follow him out and open up the paint, all while Scheyer has enough size at the other end to make getting to the basket a fairly miserable experience. That is a lot for any opposing team to deal with.
Duke belongs at the top of the discussion, but the Blue Devils don’t need to be my opening-day bet. We have the entire season to be sensible, and I've got long-shots that are worth getting an early wager on.
Kansas Jayhawks to win the national championship (30-1)
If Trey Kaufman-Renn is in and stays in, I think this is a 12-1 price after a month. I took a small flier at 30-1. The basketball is easier to handicap than the paperwork, as we’re still not sure if he’ll be allowed to play.
I have no special insight into how the legal situation ends. Bill Self expecting to play him is encouraging, but an injunction and an ankle update aren't a guarantee that he stays on the floor all season. That's why this is a small flier.
Our preseason CBB projections have Kansas No. 3 with Kaufman-Renn included. He averaged 14.2 points and 8.3 rebounds at Purdue last season, and his fit next to Tyran Stokes is what I want to see. Stokes scored 27 in the preseason against Duke, gets into the lane and draws help, but asking a freshman to create something out of nothing every time an offense stalls is a fairly exhausting way to spend a season. Kaufman-Renn gives Kansas a scorer inside who can punish that help and an experienced option when the first action doesn't work.
There is still some familiar Kansas frustration to clean up. In his comments ahead of the opener, Self criticized the movement after his guards pass the ball, saying, "They just stand or go get it right back." If that sounds like a possession you've watched before, Self made the connection to last season himself. A prettier roster doesn't fix everyone watching the guy with the ball.
A game against Kentucky on Nov. 10 gives Kansas an early chance to change the conversation. I'm watching whether Kaufman-Renn can handle a real role and whether his presence gets the ball moving, not just whether his name appears in the box score. A cameo against Fordham wouldn't answer either question.
With Kaufman-Renn, Stokes, Tre White and Melvin Council Jr., I think the pieces are there for a title contender. Without Kaufman-Renn, I'm not making the same argument at this price. Waiting for a clean answer would be more comfortable, but I'd rather have a small ticket before that answer than decide I love Kansas after a good night against Kentucky.
Bet: Kansas to win the national championship (30-1)
Florida State Seminoles to win the national championship (400-1)
Florida State head coach Luke Loucks recruited Shon Abaev by telling him, "Your shot selection is terrible. You don't guard anyone. You don't rebound." Not sure that would have been my opening pitch, but Abaev signed and then scored 26 in Florida State's exhibition win over LSU. Maybe the recruiting visit doesn't always need a photoshoot and a promise of unlimited shots.
Abaev joins a group with 6-11 Sebastian Rancik, 6-10 Cooper Schwieger and Anthony Robinson II, giving Florida State size, forwards who can step away from the basket and a guard who can pressure the ball. Add a coach willing to get after them, and I can start talking myself into this team. I'm not confusing one exhibition with a breakout season.
Loucks' criticism of Abaev is also a pretty good explanation of how this can fail: questionable shots, inconsistent defense and players who look much better individually than they do together. But if he gets this group buying in, full-court pressure with that size and speed could be miserable for an opponent still sorting itself out in November. Florida comes to Tallahassee on Nov. 10. — that is the game I'm buying before.
Our projections make the Gators the better team, and they could absolutely handle the pressure, get the ball inside and remind me why Florida State is 400-1. Still, a few turnovers, a loud home crowd and all that length can make a game uncomfortable in a hurry, and I want a tiny piece of the version where Florida is the team that isn't ready for it.
Beating Florida wouldn't cash this ticket. I still need those athletes to defend, rebound and play together well enough to win in March — and that's a much bigger ask than causing problems for a rival at home. But at 400-1, I'm willing to take a tiny shot before finding out whether Loucks has something here. Lose and look completely outmatched, and I'll probably forget about the ticket. For now, let me enjoy my November optimism.
Bet: Florida State to win the national championship (400-1 at Caesars). Small flier.