A college basketball season is a long time. Usually by the time nets are being cut and Luther Vandross is warming up to nail One Shining Moment again there have been games going for a shade over five months with all the ebbs and flows, rises and collapses, triumphs and heartbreaks, and everything in between. For some teams, a place in the NCAA Tournament is a foregone conclusion before the calendar flips to February. For others, their fate remains in the balance as the larger sports world begins to take notice in March. For certain others, like Xavier last year, their fate has been hinted for much of those five months and reduced to a prayer that they can conjure up some March magic in their conference tournament.
If you were following Xavier last year, you probably don’t need reminded that things were already looking bleak in terms of a trip to the Big Dance before a ball had been tipped in Big East play. Xavier came out of their non-conference slate at 8-3, but six of those wins were in Q4 and the three losses ended up being the only three opponents they played who ended up with at-large bids. A season can go off the rails after a promising start, but to get back to the NCAA Tournament in year two under Richard Pitino, Xavier will be hoping to set themselves up in a much stronger position before taking on Marquette in their Big East opener.
The Buy Games
Last season, Xavier got pushed by Marist and LeMoyne in the first two games of the season before getting hammered by Santa Clara. Intermingled with four high major opponents were much more perfunctory beatings of Old Dominion, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Saint Francis, and Missouri State. None of those wins ended up amounting to anything resume wise, but Santa Clara ended up being a Q2 game meaning the loss didn’t really hurt Xavier a ton. This season, Xavier has Mount St. Mary’s, Eastern Michigan, Detroit Mercy, Cleveland State, Texas Southern, Purdue Fort Wayne, and FIU lined up to come to Cintas. Eastern Michigan and FIU are the only teams in the top 200 of Bart Torvik’s current projections (Santa Clara came into the season 91st last year) at 164 and 198 respectively. It is still a couple of months until those teams make their way to Cincinnati, but they currently don’t project to be as daunting of a test as Herb Sendek’s Broncos were last season while also not likely making the threshold to become a Q3 opponent at home. Every other team falls between 239 and 292, ranking behind where Marist, ODU, TA&M CC, and Missouri St. did last season, except for Texas Southern, who comes in at 342. It goes without saying that losing a buy game is not a harbinger of good things typically, but there doesn’t seem to be a challenge or an opportunity like Santa Clara this season among these teams.
Neutral Court Games
Xavier has three cracks at high majors on neutral floors this year after splitting their chances last season against Georgia and West Virginia. First up will be the Greenbrier Tip-Off against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are coming off a disappointing 13-19 in their fourth season under Chris Jans after three successive trips to the NCAA Tournament and land at 63 in Torvik’s projection. They are still led by three time All-SEC guard Josh Hubbard, who put up 22 PPG last season and will provide a stern early test for Xavier’s rebuilt backcourt. Bracketing Thanksgiving Day will be the Battle 4 Atlantis, where Xavier will square off with Texas A&M and Virginia. The Aggies won 21 games in the regular season and knocked off Saint Mary’s in the NCAA Tournament in their first season of Bucky Ball under Bucky McMillan. They lost some key pieces, but added journeyman guard PJ Haggerty and will hope to have former top 10 recruit Mackenzie Mgbako healthy this season, coming in at 46 according to Torvik. Regardless of result, Xavier will see Virginia on Black Friday and Ryan Odom’s Cavaliers project to be the sternest challenge Xavier will face before Big East play. Virginia will be led by First Team All-ACC forward Thijs De Ridder as well as the back court combo of Sam Lewis and Chance Mallory that helped them to a three seed last season. Currently, Torvik is bullish on them, placing them behind only Duke and Arizona in the projections.
Iowa At Home
Last season, Xavier followed their 19 point loss to Santa Clara by going to Carver-Hawkeye Arena and losing by 19 to Iowa. Those Hawkeyes would win thrillers over Clemson, Florida, and Nebraska on their way to the Elite Eight last year, but lost major contributors Bennett Stirtz, Tavion Banks, and Alvaro Folgueiras. Coach Ben McCollum spurned North Carolina to remain in Iowa City and will lean on returners Cooper Koch, Kael Combs, Tate Sage, and Cam Manyawu to lead the way for a squad that should still have hopes of returning to the tournament based on their Torvik projection of 47.
The Crosstown Shootout
Beyond resume building, this one is circled on the calendar every season as a must win just because we despise these guys and don’t want to see them happy. The Wes Miller Experience has run its course in Clifton and alum and former Bob Huggins assistant Jerrod Calhoun is in. Some of the outlook on the Bearcats this season will depend on what takes place in the courtroom regarding the eligibility of Utah State transfer MJ Collins, who intends to follow Calhoun to Cincy and bring his 17.3 points per game with him. The Bearcats currently project at 39 in Torvik’s rankings, the highest of any team that is not returning any minutes, but will look a lot different if Collins remains ineligible.