The Illinois basketball program is poised for a big 2026-27 campaign.
Brad Underwood has the expectations skyrocketing for the Illini, and starting No. 3 in the country shows that the nation has taken notice.
After a Final Four run the year before, it would be natural for Illinois to take a step backward. Not only is Illinois starting the season ranked No. 3, but we now have the floor for what is the worst-case scenario this season.
EvanMiya.com published a study of the top 50 teams in college basketball and the ceilings and floors for these programs. The study took 10,000 season simulations, which included numerous factors.
The results from the top 50 teams in the country were broken down into the top eight teams with the most uncertainty and the least uncertainty. Illinois finished second-best in the least uncertainty, which means we won't see much variation in national ranking this season.
According to EvanMiya.com, Illinois' best finish is No. 1 in the country. That makes sense since we are the No. 3 team in the country right now. The median finish is No. 4 in the nation. I would take that, since that gets us a likely No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
The number that piqued my interest the most was the floor finish. Illinois' floor for the 2026-27 campaign is No. 16 in the nation.
I simulated the season 10,000 times to determine the best-case and worst-case outcomes for all 365 CBB teams, using the preseason uncertainty estimates specific to each team.
You can find the results for every single conference here:https://t.co/UunpK1HkdK
– Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) October 26, 2026
That gives me some comfort because there are injuries on the roster right now. Illinois will likely struggle against the top teams with David Mirkovic on the mend. Dropping a few games in the non-conference will hopefully not drop the Illini too far in the rankings.
Illinois basketball continues to be a consistent team under Brad Underwood
Underwood has been the captain Illinois needed. He didn't just bring winning to Champaign once again, but he brought national consistency.
Illinois is coming into the 2026-27 campaign making six straight NCAA tournaments. We have been ranked in the AP Top 25 at some point in each of the last eight seasons. This includes finishing ranked in the AP Top 25 in five of the last seven seasons leading up to this highly anticipated season.
With Underwood at the helm, Illinois now has seven straight 20-win seasons. We have had at least 11 wins in the Big Ten in each of the last seven seasons, too.
You couple all of those numbers with the projection for the 2026-27 season of the ceiling being No. 1 and the floor being No. 16, and that screams consistency.
Illinois doesn't just have one of the best teams in the country. We have one of the best programs. Underwood is sitting on the iron throne. He is the king of consistency.
Today's best reads
- Illinois basketball has golden opportunity to meet expectations in first AP Top 25 reveal
- Illinois received highest ranking in over a quarter century in AP Preseason Poll
- Illinois will be without David Mirkovic longer than expected with regular season looming
- David Mirkovic's Preseason All-America nod is just another accolade to add to the list
- David Mirkovic injury update puts spotlight on Illinois basketball rebounding woes
This article was originally published on www.writingillini.com as Brad Underwood is the king of consistency as floor is set for Illinois basketball.