The Boston Celtics are entering one of their strangest seasons in a long time, as they somehow feel like a contender and a team in transition at the same time. They went 56-26 last season even though Jayson Tatum missed the first 62 games recovering from his torn Achilles, finished second in the East, and ranked second in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating. Then they blew a 3-1 lead against the 76ers in the first round, with Tatum unavailable for Game 7, and suddenly a very good season ended looking pretty terrible.
Brad Stevens responded by doing something nobody would’ve expected a year ago. Jaylen Brown, who averaged a career-high 28.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists and made the All-NBA Second Team, was traded to the 76ers for Paul George, two first-round picks, and two second-round picks. Boston then gave Neemias Queta four years and $56.0 million, signed Mitchell Robinson for three years and $47.4 million, added Mike Conley, and used the No. 27 pick on 6-foot-11 Chris Cenac Jr.
So this isn’t the 2024 championship team anymore. Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and plenty of the old depth are gone. Still, Tatum is only 28, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard are proven high-level guards, George can still play a good 3-and-D role, and the Celtics have enough size to look much better at center than they did at different points last year.
That makes their 2026-27 range pretty huge. A healthy Tatum could put Boston right back near the top of the East. Another injury-heavy season could expose how much this roster has changed around him.
Best-Case Scenario: Tatum Is Completely Back With Pieces That Fit
Best-Case Record: 59-23
Best-Case Finish: 2nd seed in the East
The entire best-case argument starts with one thing: Jayson Tatum looking like the superstar he is once again. He returned in March and obviously wasn’t fully himself immediately, averaging 21.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in 16 regular-season games while shooting 41.1% from the field and 32.9% from three.
Still, the playoffs gave Boston some really encouraging signs. He increased those numbers to 23.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 6.8 assists while shooting 47.5% from the field and 36.5% from three before another injury kept him out of Game 7 against the 76ers.
The best-case version isn’t asking him to take it easy in the regular season again. It’s Tatum getting a full summer to rebuild his game, entering camp without the same restrictions, and slowly returning to the 27-30 PPG All-NBA player Boston had before the injury. If he can get somewhere around 27.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists on close to his old efficiency, the entire roster will get a massive boost.
Paul George wouldn’t need to replace Jaylen Brown statistically in that scenario. That’s probably the biggest thing Boston has to understand. Brown just averaged 28.7 PPG, while George averaged 17.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.7 steals across only 37 games with the 76ers. At 36 years old, asking PG to suddenly become a 27-point scorer again would be crazy.
But Boston doesn’t need that version. George shot 39.2% from three on 6.9 attempts per game last season and still has the size to defend wings. If he gives them 17-20 points, five rebounds, four assists, around 39.0% from three, and stays available for 60-plus games, that’s enough next to a healthy Tatum. He also averaged 17.4 points against Boston in the playoffs, so the Celtics literally just saw that he can still contribute in a physical series.
Then Derrick White needs to look more like his usual offensive self. White still averaged 16.5 points, 5.4 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.3 blocks and somehow finished sixth in Defensive Player of the Year voting, but he shot only 39.4% from the field and 32.7% from three. He had shot 39.6% from deep over the previous two seasons combined, so even getting him back near 38.0% would change a lot.
Payton Pritchard has already shown he can handle more responsibility, and that’s a great sign. He averaged 17.0 points, 5.2 assists, and 3.9 rebounds while shooting 46.4% from the field and 37.7% from three last season, starting 50 games while Tatum was out. He’s a primary offensive piece who can run pick-and-roll, shoot eight threes on a good night, and give Joe Mazzulla another punchy scorer next to White.
The frontcourt could also be much better than people think. Queta made a massive jump to 10.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks and started 75 games, while Robinson averaged 8.8 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in only 19.6 minutes for the champion Knicks. Boston can now throw two physical seven-footers at teams instead of having just one NBA-level center for every matchup.
If all of that works, the Celtics can absolutely win close to 60 games again. They already won 56 with Tatum playing only 16 regular-season games, posted a +8.1 net rating, and had the NBA’s second-ranked offense and fourth-ranked defense. A fully healthy Tatum is worth more than four extra wins by himself if the rest of the roster contributes positively.
My best-case outcome would be around 59-23, the No. 2 seed in the East, and a return to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks, Pistons, 76ers, and Heat make the conference ridiculous now, so a championship isn’t something I’d predict easily, but healthy Tatum with a solid PG plus that defense is absolutely good enough to win several playoff rounds if everything breaks correctly.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Brown Trade Makes Them Older And Worse
Worst-Case Record: 44-38
Worst-Case Finish: 7th seed in the East
The ugly version starts with Tatum never really getting back to his pre-Achilles level. Maybe he remains a very good All-Star but loses a little burst getting downhill. Maybe the three-point percentage stays under 35.0%. Maybe his physical drives lack that aggression again, and he becomes a 23-point scorer instead of a 28-point scorer. That wouldn’t make Tatum bad at all, but Boston built this roster expecting its $58.5 million superstar to eventually become one of the five best players in the league again.
That becomes a much bigger issue because Jaylen isn’t there to carry the offense anymore. Brown basically saved the Celtics’ regular season last year, averaging 28.7 PPG across 71 games and finishing sixth in MVP voting. George can’t be expected to do that at 36.
Health is the scary part with PG that must be addressed. He played only 41 games in 2024-25 and 37 last season, meaning he has appeared in 78 of a possible 164 regular-season games across the last two years. If his body only gives them another 40-50 games, the Brown trade suddenly looks pretty brutal in the short term, even with the draft picks attached.
Then White’s shooting slump could become more concerning instead of looking temporary. Pritchard could struggle with more defensive attention. Mike Conley is 38 and averaged only 4.5 points and 2.9 assists last season, so he isn’t replacing lost creation by himself. Sam Hauser is a shooter, not somebody who can run an offense. Suddenly Boston could end up relying on Tatum for way too much again.
I like both centers, but they also come with some questions. Robinson has always had injury woes and played only 60 regular-season games last year. Queta was really good, but he has only one season as a full-time NBA starter. Cenac is 19 and averaged 9.5 points and 7.9 rebounds at Houston, so expecting a rookie selected No. 27 to become important immediately would be unfair.
That worst-case roster starts looking pretty banged up around Tatum. George is 36, Conley is 38, White is 32, Robinson has injury history, and Tatum himself is coming off the biggest injury of his career. The Celtics still have enough shooting and coaching to avoid completely collapsing, but the margin isn’t nearly as ridiculous as it was during their 2024 title run.
I could see that version finishing around 44-38, falling into the No. 7 seed, surviving the Play-In, and then losing in the first round to one of the top Eastern teams. That’s still not a disaster by normal NBA standards, but for a team that just made the craziest trade in a long time, it would feel like one.
The Biggest Swing Factors
1. Does Jayson Tatum Get His Old Burst Back?
This is basically 50% of the article by itself. Boston won 56 games without Tatum for most of last season, but Brown was there averaging almost 29 points and taking the hardest offensive role. Brown is gone now, so there isn’t another player on this roster who can casually cover for the missed Tatum games.
The encouraging part is how quickly Tatum already started looking better. After averaging 20.9 points and shooting 39.9% from the field through his first 11 games back, he finished the regular season at 21.8 PPG and then shot 47.5% from the field in the playoffs. The improvement was already happening in real time.
If that continues and Tatum gets back to All-NBA First Team level, Boston’s ceiling is still huge. If this is closer to his new normal, everything becomes harder.
2. How Much Does Paul George Have Left?
Boston didn’t trade Jaylen Brown because Paul George is the better fit right now. Brown is eight years younger, just averaged 28.7 points, and was the 2024 Finals MVP. The Celtics made the move because George can still help them a bit while the short-term contract gives them huge flexibility for the future.
PG’s role should actually be pretty simple. Shoot threes, defend bigger wings, attack mismatches, make the extra pass, and don’t force himself to create 25 points every night. His 39.2% shooting from three last year makes him a natural fit around Tatum, White, and Pritchard, and his 1.7 steals show the defensive instincts are still there.
But none of that matters if he can’t stay on the court. Boston doesn’t need 2019 Paul George. It probably needs 60 games of 2026 Paul George.
3. Derrick White And Payton Pritchard As A Backcourt Duo
White and Pritchard combined for 33.5 points and 10.6 assists per game last season, and that production now becomes even more important because Brown’s 28.7 PPG disappeared. Boston needs both guards to keep creating instead of becoming guys who simply wait for Tatum to do everything.
Pritchard’s development is especially important because he’s still on one of the best contracts in the league at $7.8 million this season. White makes $30.3 million and is already an elite defender, so any shooting bounce-back makes him one of the best two-way guards in basketball again.
If those two can increase their points and assists while shooting efficiently, Boston’s offense will be fine. If White stays around 32.0% from three and Pritchard struggles with a bigger role, the pieces around Tatum get way less scary.
4. The New Center Rotation Has To Work
The Celtics clearly decided size was a priority this summer. Queta received $56.0 million, Robinson got $47.4 million, and Cenac was the No. 27 pick. That’s three separate investments into a position that has changed constantly since the 2024 championship.
I actually like the idea. Queta can start most nights, Robinson can destroy offensive glass in shorter bursts, and Cenac will just keep developing in the trenches. Boston finished third in rebounds last season already, so this group could become legitimately annoying around the rim.
The issue is spacing. Neither Queta nor Robinson stretches the floor, so Mazzulla probably can’t play them together much. That puts more pressure on the secondary players to hit threes to keep the paint open.
Most Likely Outcome: Still Good But Not A Favorite
Most Likely Record: 50-32
Most Likely Finish: 5th seed in the East
I don’t think the Celtics are about to fall off. Winning 56 games with Tatum available for only 16 tells me Joe Mazzulla’s system and the rest of this infrastructure are way too good for that. They had a +8.1 net rating last season, and you don’t accidentally finish top four in both offense and defense for that long without your superstar.
I also think they’ve not been the best team in the East for 2 years. The Knicks just won the championship, the Pistons won 60 games, the 76ers replaced George with Brown and then added LeBron James, and the Heat have Giannis Antetokounmpo. Boston has way more competition than it did two years ago.
My most realistic version is Tatum getting most, but maybe not all, of his old explosiveness back. Something around 26.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists feels reasonable. George probably lands around 16-18 points while missing some games, White shoots better than last year, Pritchard remains around 16-17 PPG, and Queta plus Robinson gives the Celtics a pretty strong center rotation.
That team should win somewhere around 50-54 games and finish between third and fifth in the East. From there, I can easily see another second-round appearance and maybe an Eastern Conference Finals run if Tatum absolutely becomes a top-three MVP candidate.
So my final projection would be 50-32, the No. 5 seed, and a second-round exit with a real chance to go further. That’s a step below where the Celtics lived from 2022 through 2024, but it wouldn’t mean this era is done.
But they must decide whether this new version around Tatum can become great enough to win another championship before Paul George gets too old and the roster has to change all over again in two years. And I don’t really think they have the pieces for that.