There are still more than three weeks before the NCAA Tournament brackets are announced, and we still have all the madness of the conference tournaments to deal with, so …
Deep breath, everyone.
Forgetting about Saint Louis for a moment – who might not be an automatic lock now with a loss to Rhode Island and a blah schedule overall – here are 13 teams that either made a big statement, or just saw their NCAA Tournament bubble pop.
Updated NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch After a Wild Tuesday Night
The NET and KenPom rankings were the latest versions before Tuesday night’s games. Go here for our prediction on every remaining game for all 13 teams.
Baylor
Kansas State 90, Baylor 74
NET: 46 | KenPom: 48
Record: 13-13 | Final Projection: 15-16
NCAA Tournament Projection: Out
The Bears were about as fringe as a bubble team could get, but after getting rocked by Kansas State, and with Arizona, at UCF, and at Houston still to deal with, that’s it without a miracle run.
Georgia
Georgia 86, Kentucky 78
NET: 39 | KenPom: 41
Record: 18-8 | Final Projection: 21-10
NCAA Tournament Projection: 10
The Bulldogs went from being likely in, but needing to put in some work, to in with ease after the win on the road over UK. They should win at least three of their last five regular season games.
Grand Canyon
Grand Canyon 73, San Diego State 63
NET: 77 | KenPom: 58
Record: 17-9 | Final Projection: 21-10
NCAA Tournament Projection: Bubble/Lean Out
Well that just changed everything. Just when it seemed like it was about to get blown out at San Diego State, the defense clamped down hard in a dominant second half.
It still needs to do a whole lot of work, but outside of a trip to Utah State, it should win four of its last five to get in the NCAA Tournament bubble mix.
Iowa
Iowa 57, Nebraska 52
NET: 27 | KenPom: 24
Record: 19-7 | Final Projection: 21-10
NCAA Tournament Projection: 9
With dates at Wisconsin and Nebraska still to go, and with Michigan and Ohio State coming to Carver-Hawkeye, Iowa needed to come up with something big. Taking down Nebraska did just that.
Miami
Miami 67, Virginia Tech 66
NET: 35 | KenPom: 40
Record: 21-5 | Final Projection: 24-7
NCAA Tournament Projection: 8
The Hurricanes should’ve been fine before hanging on to beat Virginia Tech, but the wins keep piling up. They’re not a lead pipe cinch with a rough finishing kick, but not losing on Tuesday night helped.
Nevada
San Jose State 87, Nevada 71
NET: 59 | KenPom: 70
Record: 17-9 | Final Projection: 21-10
NCAA Tournament Projection: Out
Ugggggggggggggh. With home games against Utah State and New Mexico next, the Wolf Pack had a massive chance to fill a now-gaping hole in the Mountain West for possible NCAA Tournament teams. They blew it with a blowout loss to a team ranked 267th in the NET.
Ohio State
Ohio State 86, Wisconsin 69
NET: 38 | KenPom: 37
Record: 18-8 | Final Projection: 20-11
NCAA Tournament Projection: 11
The Buckeyes would’ve been lean in no matter what happened on Tuesday night, but blowing out Wisconsin was gigantic with at Michigan State, at Iowa, and Purdue coming up next.
San Diego State
Grand Canyon 73, San Diego State 63
NET: 41 | KenPom: 43
Record: 17-9 | Final Projection: 22-8
NCAA Tournament Projection: Bubble/Lean Out
The home loss to Grand Canyon isn’t a deathblow, but it’s close.
SDSU has the most talent and depth in the Mountain West – yes, including Utah State – but it has a maddening way of face-planting against teams it should rock. It’s good enough to win the conference tournament, and it might have to now with Utah State, New Mexico, and Boise State still to go.
SMU
SMU 95, Louisville 85
NET: 36 | KenPom: 35
Record: 18-8 | Final Projection: 20-11
NCAA Tournament Projection: 11
The ranking systems haven’t loved the Mustangs, but they would’ve been relatively comfortable as long as they were close against Louisville. And what did they do? They won by ten.
TCU
UCF 82, TCU 71
NET: 45 | KenPom: 52
Record: 16-10 | Final Projection: 19-12
NCAA Tournament Projection: Out
There’s still a little bit of hope. The loss to UCF hurts, but outside of the date at Texas Tech, there’s still a chance to roll through the rest of the regular season schedule. It’s going to take a minor miracle, though, to get on the radar.
UCF
UCF 82, TCU 71
NET: 49 | KenPom: 50
Record: 18-7 | Final Projection: 21-9
NCAA Tournament Projection: 9
There isn’t a lot on the resume to fall in love with – the ranking systems don’t dig the Knights – but this was one of those wins that turns into a quietly big deal. Had they lost, it would’ve been crippling with the pressure on to roll through the final five games.
UCLA
Michigan State 82, UCLA 59
NET: 49 | KenPom: 42
Record: 17-9 | Final Projection: 18-13
NCAA Tournament Projection: Bubble/Lean Out
The Bruins were supposed to lose at Michigan State, but it was the meltdown in the blowout that made it seem so much worse.
With Illinois up next, there’s a huge problem without a big late run and a big performance in the Big Ten Tournament.
Virginia Tech
Miami 67, Virginia Tech 66
NET: 58 | KenPom: 61
Record: 18-8 | Final Projection: 21-10
NCAA Tournament Projection: Out
The Hokies were supposed to lose at Miami, and they came close to pulling it off. However, they were well outside of the bubble before the loss, with dates at North Carolina and Virginia to deal with, it will take something miraculous to get in.
Related: College Basketball Rankings: CFN Top 68 Teams for Week 16
This story was originally published by College Football News on Feb 18, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.