Ove the past decade Seton Hall basketball has played more consequential games against Villanova than against any other Big East rival. Pirate fans know them by heart – two Big East Tournament finals and a semifinal, the 2019 win-and-in season finale and the 2020 regular-season title showdown, for starters.
Add Wednesday’s meeting to the list.
The Hall (16-6 overall, 6-5 Big East) needs a hang-your-hat win to move onto the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, and this trip to the Main Line (6:30 p.m., Peacock) might be their best opportunity.
“The problem with the Big East is there’s so few opportunities Seton Hall gets to impress the committee,” New Jersey-based bracketologist Brad Wachtel said. “Right now they only have one win over the (projected) field, and that’s against N.C. State, so they need to continue to add needle-moving wins in order to improve their resume.”
Wachtel, publisher of the Facts & Bracks website and a contributor to Seth Davis’ Hoops HQ website and the widely watched Field of 68 podcast, currently has the Pirates among the “First Four out” in his bracket projection.
“A win at Villanova definitely puts them in, and probably puts them as a top-10 seed,” Wachtel said. “That’s how much that win would matter.”
He added, “Looking at their schedule, they’ll play three more games against teams that will definitely be in the NCAA Tournament (the others are at UConn Feb. 21 and St. John’s at home March 6). In an ideal world, you win at least one of those.”
The key metrics are not what you think
Villanova (16-5, 7-3) isn’t as daunting as UConn and would be more valuable than beating St. John’s at home. Seton Hall’s NET ranking is 49 at the moment, but Wachtel said the NET doesn’t contain the most crucial information.
“Last year North Carolina made the NCAA Tournament and they finished with one quadrant one win,” he said. “The numbers that really matter are those result-based metrics. Some people don’t get into the weeds with that, but right now if you look at Seton Hall’s result-based metrics, the three categories – strength of record (47), KPI (52) and wins above bubble (53), are pretty solid right now. If that (strength of record) number ends up top-45, ideally top-40, they’re in good shape.”
He added, “People always make reference to the NET, but the NET is more of a predictive metric. The net is not really used for a team’s inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. It’s more for seeding teams.”
A scheduling thumbs-up
One well-known metric in the Hall’s favor is its 6-3 record in road/neutral contests.
“It definitely helps, and that’s one of the things the committee looks at,” Wachtel said. “That’s one of the advantages to playing in a down year for the Big East – you can pick up some road wins. Not every road game is impossible.”
He sees the Big East maxing out at four Big Dance bids this season, with Seton Hall being the potential fourth team.
“I don’t see five happening,” he said.
Wachtel likes the way Hall coach Shaheen Holloway scheduled out of conference, with three neutral-site games at the Maui Invitational in Hawaii and a winnable high-major road game at Kansas State.
“I like the neutral-site games,” he said. “It was a tournament with some winnable games.”
The target Big East record?
In the big picture, if the Pirates finish their Big East slate with a 12-8 record, including a win over either St. John’s or Villanova, “I think that puts them right there at the bubble,” Wachtel said. “If they win at Villanova, they would be in.”
Of course there’s a long way to go, and projections might look much different on Selection Sunday due to bid-stealers and unforeseen surges.
“If you’re asking me today does 12 (conference) wins get them in, my answer right now is yes, barely,” Wachtel said. “But obviously, who are those wins over? They have a relatively clean resume; they just have to beat some more quality opponents.”
A 32-year series drought
Aside from its practical impact, winning at Villanova would be a massive historical breakthrough. Since 1994 the Hall is 1-22 on the road in this series, including 0-16 in contests on Villanova’s campus. The lone win came in 2020 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. Very few of the meetings at the Pavilion – we’ll call it the “Ski Lodge” – have been competitive.
None of the current Pirates have anything to do with that futility. That said, they laid an egg in the Dec. 23 matchup, falling by eight at home and never really challenging. Two mitigating circumstances that night: Standout freshman center Najai Hines sat out due to an unspecified ailment and point guard Budd Clark, the reigning Big East Player of the Week, picked up two fouls right away.
Villanova coach Kevin Willard packed in the defense against Clark and the other Pirates, daring them to shoot over the top. The Hall’s best antidote for that is to push the pace off of turnovers and rebounds. Of course, that is easier said than done.
During his 12 years as the skipper in South Orange, Willard notched some enormous wins against the Villanova juggernaut – at home in the 2019 finale, on the road in 2020, and in the 2016 Big East final at Madison Square Garden. But he never cracked the code at the Pavilion. For Holloway and the Pirates, this would be a monumental time to do it.
Jerry Carino has covered the New Jersey sports scene since 1996 and the college basketball beat since 2003. Contact him at jcarino@gannettnj.com.
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: As Seton Hall basketball visits Villanova, a bracketologist's view