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During Mike Krzyzewski’s time at Duke, he often said that he thought an eight-man rotation was his ideal, and he often didn’t carry more than 11-12 players on the roster.
Will Jon Scheyer challenge that template this season? Maybe. Maybe not.
Last season, Scheyer more or less followed Coach K’s tendency, playing eight guys double-digit minutes, while Darren Harris was just under that level. But at the end of the season, two starters (Caleb Foster and Pat Ngongba) were on scooters, and Duke’s depth was a real concern.
That won’t be an issue this year, as the Blue Devils are ridiculously deep.
Foster and Ngongba are back, as are Dame Sarr, Cayden Boozer, and Sebastian Wilkins, who redshirted.
He picked up John Blackwell (Wisconsin), Drew Scharnowski (Belmont) and Jacob Theodosiou (Loyola Maryland) in the portal.
He also added a talented freshman class with 7-2 Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, 7-1 Maxime Meyer, 7-0 Cameron Williams, 6-4 Bryson Howard, 6-3 Deron Rippey, and 5-11 preferred walk-on Nick Arnold.
Theodosiou and Arnold are the only ones who are unlikely to crack the rotation, and we don’t know where Wilkins is yet.
However you slice it, there are 10-12 guys who could get serious minutes.
Of the returnees, Ngongba was tremendous at times last year, Foster emerged as a true leader, Sarr showed immense defensive ability, and Boozer showed he could definitely play at this level.
Blackwell showed at Wisconsin that he’s a tremendous player, and a guy who knows what to do in the clutch. Scharnowski is capable of bully ball, plus he’s a rugged defender and can pass. And of the freshmen, we’d bet any of them could start at some point, with the possible exception of Meyer, who may need to mature a bit before he gets to that point.
So what do you do with that much talent?
It hasn’t happened much lately, but the last time it did was in 2015, when John Calipari had a roster loaded with future NBA players, including Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Trey Lyles.
His answer to how to deal with that much talent was to use platoons. It worked well enough — Kentucky finished 38-1 before losing to Wisconsin in the Final Four — but the players were not entirely happy with it, feeling it was both too rigid, and that it could affect their NBA Draft stock.
What will Duke do in a similar situation?
On Jon Rothstein’s podcast, Scheyer said he plans to work with 8-11 players early before getting down to a Krzyzewskian 8-man rotation.
Specifically, he said that Duke has “really 12 good players,” but that “it’s not going to be 12. That’s just what it is. You can’t play 12.”
So clearly, he’s not going to make the mistake that John Calipari made with that 2015 Kentucky team, which was the stupidest (and possibly most cowardly) rotation decision since UNC’s Bill Guthridge had “six starters” in 1998 and rotated one out (and in) of the starting lineup each game.
Our guess — and it’s only a guess at this point — is that Wilkins and Meyer will be down the depth chart and will have to earn minutes.
Assume that he considers Foster, Ngongba, Sarr, Boozer, Wilkins, Blackwell, Scharnowski, Williams, Rippey, Howard, Meyer and Boumtje Boumtje to be really good players.
That gives Scheyer 10 guys to plan around.
All of them have things to offer the team, but since Scheyer is on record as being a defense-first coach, let’s start there.
It’s going to be hard to keep Foster, Ngongba, Sarr, and Boozer off the court.
All of them were brilliant defensively at times last year, and all four know the system and have trust from the coaching staff. They’ll be important.
Scharnowski has a reputation as a defender, and, with the possible exceptions of Ngongba and freshman Boumtje Boumtje, he’s the one who is most likely able to bully other big men. If you haven’t caught on yet, Scharnowski is a very powerful guy.
Blackwell is very likely to play as well. He is primarily seen as an offensive asset, but when he committed, he said one of his reasons was to improve his defense. He may not be the best defender on the team, but he’s willing, and that counts.
Rippey is also a willing defender, and he’s got tremendous talent. And that’s true for Howard, too, who some have already pegged as a lottery pick.
Boumtje Boumtje? We’re not sure yet, but he is 7-2, and reportedly has terrific lateral quickness.
And Williams is also a good shot blocker.
Whatever the rotation ends up being, Scheyer has some real luxuries. If he wants to attack the perimeter, he can put out a lineup with some combination of Sarr, Foster, Rippey, and Howard.
If he chooses, Duke could press the hell out of some teams — and there’s no need to take the foot off the gas.
If he needs to defend the interior, against, say, Virginia, he could put out any combination of Ngongba, Williams, Boumtje Boumtje and Scharnowski.
If he decides to go zone for a time, he could go full Boeheim and put out Ngongba, Williams, Boumtje Boumtje, Sarr, and Foster.
He basically has answers for almost any scenario defensively, and if he has injuries again this season, there’s probably enough depth to overcome it.
In fact, while there were occasions in the last few seasons where Duke had to conserve energy on defense, that’s the last thing this team should have to worry about.
Scheyer likes to keep pressure on the ball and to have his team switch on defense. This team should be able to do both, no matter who is on the floor.
The depth gives Scheyer the ability to keep pressure dialed up to 11 at all times, and if someone gets in foul trouble, well, there’s more where that came from.
Bottom line: no one is going to be happy to line up against Duke this season.
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