After a loss to Houston in the Big 12 Quarterfinals, BYU’s season is over and the Cougs now await their NCAA Tournament path on Selection Sunday. I consider BYU’s Big 12 Tournament successful — they picked up two Quad 2 wins, showed well versus Houston, figured out an identity with Diomande and Mboup as key pieces, and showed the NCAA Selection Committee that Richie’s injury should not impact their seeding at all.
BYU is hoping for a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and I realistically see four teams jockeying for two 6 seed spots while the other two will get a seven seed (more on that below).
Friday morning, Bracket Matrix has BYU as the final 6 seed with a modest gap between BYU and the 7 seeds. Friday and potential Saturday games could sway seeding.
BYU Resume Compared to Other Potential 6 Seeds
Right now I think BYU, Louisville, Kentucky, and Miami are four teams competing for two 6 seed spots. The other two will likwly be 7 seeds. Below is a resume comparison of the four.
*This is before Kentucky’s and Miami’s Friday Conference Tournament Games
- Miami probably has the weakest case of the four. The committee rewards teams who schedule tough in non-conference, and Miami’s is far below the other three. Head-to-head isn’t a big factor in college basketball since there are 30+ games, but BYU’s win over Miami is a data point if the teams are being directly compared. Miami plays #10 Virginia today, and they probably need to win that game if they want a shot at a 6 seed. That would be their best win of the year.
- BYU’s case best rests in its Q1+Q2 record, WAB (wins above bubble; the committee has said this is an important metric), and overall solid metrics and SOS. BYU has zero true road wins over tourney teams, and if you’re going to ding BYU versus a team like Kentucky, that is probably the reason. BYU’s only Q1A win is over Iowa State. Texas Tech was until their blowout loss to Iowa State, which dropped them 5 spots in NET.
- Kentucky has the best wins of the group and toughest SOS. They have a neutral court win over St John’s, home win over Vanderbilt, and road wins at Tennessee and Arkansas. Their metrics aren’t quite as good as BYU and Louisville and they don’t have the same number of Q1 wins, although their top wins are better.
- Louisville clears in metrics. NET, KenPom, and others like them. They also have a head-to-head win over Kentucky and 7 Quad 1 wins is tied with BYU for most in the group.
What Should BYU Root for Before Selection Sunday?
I rate these in order of importance.
- Kentucky to lose to Florida. The Gators are projected 1 seed. If Kentucky pulls the upset they likely get on the 6 seed line. Their resume would be better than BYU’s.
- Miami to lose to Virginia. A Miami win would make the BYU win over the Hurricanes look stronger, but it would also give the Hurricanes a fourth Quad 1 win and put them in position to potentially pass BYU. They would likely play Duke in the finals, where a win there would likely put them on the 6 seed line. A loss for the Canes to UVA doesn’t hurt BYU and gets rid of the Miami threat.
- Big gap to number three. The first two are probably the only two that will have a material difference. If I am getting nitpicky, I want Cal Baptist to do well in the WAC Tournament, where they are in the semis. They are 101 in NET, and if they move up just one spot then they become a Quad two win for BYU.
- Iowa State to win Big 12 Tourney. Don’t think this will really change anything, but it would strengthen BYU’s best win.