Missouri basketball coach Dennis Gates said Monday that his team is “going down the stretch.”
That’s a volatile road when you’re on the March Madness bubble.
“There’s a lot of things,” Gates said, “that can shift for every team.”
In a week with two top-20 opponents, Mizzou (18-9, 8-6 SEC) picked up an important win over Vanderbilt on its home court and then kept competitive in a road loss with Arkansas. That has, generally, helped the Tigers’ place in March Madness projections.
The big games don’t stop coming with No. 22 Tennessee at home on Tuesday and Mississippi State on the road Saturday this week.
Here’s what Missouri’s current tournament résumé looks like, and a glimpse at where the experts currently have the Tigers seeded and tabbed to travel for March Madness. All of the outlets’ projections were updated on the morning of Tuesday, Feb. 24.
Current Missouri basketball NCAA Tournament résumé for 2026 March Madness
Missouri’s NET ranking: No. 60
Quad 1 record: 4-5
Quad 2 record: 4-4
Quad 3 record: 2-0
Quad 4 record: 8-0
Since its eight-point loss at Arkansas on Saturday, Missouri has moved down one spot in the NET rankings and is now No. 60 nationally.
The quadrant system accounts for the location of the game and the opposing team’s NET ranking. Quad 1 games, for instance, are at home against teams ranked Nos. 1-30 in the NET, on a neutral court against teams ranked Nos. 1-50, and on the road against teams ranked Nos. 1-75.
Mizzou takes on Tennessee on Tuesday night, which will be a Quad 1 opportunity as the Vols are No. 18 in the current standings. Its road game against No. 96 Mississippi State will be a Quad 2 game, as it currently sets up.
ESPN: Border War in the Round of 32?
ESPN currently has Missouri making the tournament as an 11-seed that is headed to Dayton, Ohio, for a First Four matchup against Santa Clara. But it’s the matchup that awaits after two potential Missouri wins that’s the most eye-catching.
If Mizzou was able to see off Santa Clara in Dayton and then a 6-seeded Louisville in Greenville, South Carolina, then Joe Lunardi at ESPN has Missouri’s bitter Border War rival, Kansas, waiting as a 3-seed in the Round of 32. That would certainly be fun, but we are, admittedly, getting a bit ahead of ourselves.
What’s more important, however, is that Mizzou is a First Four team. If the Tigers want to avoid a trip to Dayton, Texas and Auburn are among the teams in ESPN’s ‘Last Four Byes’ category, meaning teams who head straight to the Round of 64.
It is, of course, not a strict science, but Missouri would benefit from outpacing those two conference-mates from now until Selection Sunday.
CBS Sports: Another First Four projection
CBS Sports had Missouri as a 10-seed before the Tigers’ loss to Arkansas, but the outlet now has the Tigers back in the First Four mix after the defeat. The margins are extremely thin.
In its most-recent projections, the Tigers would face California in Dayton. New Mexico and TCU are the other teams going to the First Four in this projection.
USA Today: Not making March Madness
Mizzou’s outlook at USA Today is a little more grim. The Tigers are not in the field, not going to Dayton … and not in the first four outside of the field, either.
That’s the outlier this week. USAT currently has TCU, New Mexico, UCLA and Santa Clara as its last four teams into the field, and USC, California, VCU and San Diego State are its first four teams out.
It’s a little less pleasant reading, but it’s a good reminder that Missouri still needs to finish this year strong or it won’t be dancing.
Bart Torvik: Last team into the field, chances 50/50
The analytics site Bart Torvik currently gives Mizzou a 49.5% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as of Feb. 24, which is based on 10,000 simulations run through its T-Ranketology ‘TourneyCast’ projections. Essentially a toss-up.
That is down from 61.2% this past Friday, before the Tigers’ loss to Arkansas. Every win and loss from this point through the end of the season is likely to have a similar effect on Mizzou’s chances.
If we stretch Torvik’s simulations out into a bracket, that makes Mizzou the last team into the field and, like a lot of the prognosticators are forecasting, going to Dayton, Ohio, for what essentially is a play-in game.
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Is Missouri basketball projected to make March Madness? Latest bracketology