When | Tuesday, 8 p.m. CT
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.
TV | SEC Network
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
KenPom prediction | Tennessee -4
ESPN win probability | 32.9% chance
The Starters
Mizzou
G: T.O. Barrett (SO, 8.1 PPG)
G: Jayden Stone (GR, 14.8 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (JR, 11.0 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 17.2 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips Jr. (SR, 7.6 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jacob Crews (GR, 9.5 PPG)
Tennessee
G: Ja’kobi Gillespie (SR, 18.1 PPG)
G: Bishop Boswell (SO, 6.5 PPG)
F: Jaylen Carey (JR, 7.8 PPG)
F: Nate Ament (FR, 18.0 PPG)
F: Felix Okpara (SR, 6.9 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: J.P. Estrella (R-SO, 9.7 PPG)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Tennessee: similar quality results with a dramatically different looking team from last year
Rick Barnes’ Volunteers were one of the best teams in the country last season with the help of an ultra-experienced starting lineup and group of reserves. Tennessee won 30 games and advanced to the Elite Eight, where it fell short to one-seed Houston, led by four senior starters and a veteran sixth man. With so much production lost to graduation this offseason, including program mainstay Zakai Zeigler, The Vols could have easily flexed their financial muscles to bring in a bevy of proven names from the portal.
Instead, Barnes made just a few key transfers additions, relying on internal development and a freshman recruiting class that ranked among the top 10 in the country to replace much of the production his team lost. The strategy paid off. Tennessee enters Tuesday night’s matchup as one of the hottest teams in college basketball at 8-1 over its last nine games, most recently picking up a 69-65 win over Vanderbilt in Nashville. The Volunteers are 20-7 and 10-4 in SEC play, with two of those losses coming to Kentucky, and will likely have entered the top-25 by the time you’re reading this article.
Senior transfer guard Ja’kobi Gillespie runs the offense for Barnes’ squad and leads the team in scoring after an All-Big Ten season last year at Maryland. He forms a potent one-two punch with freshman forward Nate Ament, who averages 18 points a game after entering college as one of the nation’s top five high school recruits. Felix Okpara is the only returning starter from last year’s Tennessee squad and gives the Vols two players at 6-foot-10 or taller in their starting five.
Bishop Boswell pairs with Gillespie in the backcourt and has seen a major uptick in minutes (and production) after playing sparingly last year in his true freshman season. And Jaylen Carey gives the Volunteers an experienced wing after putting up eight points and 5.7 rebounds per game last year as one of Vanderbilt’s first players off the bench.
J.P. Estrella has taken a major step forward as a redshirt sophomore and provides Tennessee with some scoring pop off the bench, giving the team a talented and deep group of forwards. Dewayne Brown II and Amari Evans, both blue chip freshmen, have made more immediate impacts in reserve roles. The Volunteers also went the international route to add talent to the end of its rotation, bringing in Ethan Burg from the Israeli professional league.
The TL;DR version: Tennessee is again a force to be reckoned with in the SEC. That makes the Volunteers an incredibly valuable win to have on your tournament resume, one that would be on par with Mizzou’s recent win over the Commodores.
3 Keys to the Game
Improved play from the guard position
Mizzou kept up fairly well with an ultra-talented Arkansas team in Fayetteville last time out, ultimately falling short against the Razorbacks. The difference in that game? Guard play. The Tigers struggled to stop Arkansas’ freshman guard duo of Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, who combined for 34 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists.
T.O. Barrett and Anthony Robinson II, meanwhile, combined for just 10 points and struggled to defend the duo above, leading to foul trouble. For Mizzou to pull off the upset over the Volunteers, it will need elevated guard play from at least one of Barrett or Robinson on both ends of the floor — especially the defensive end. The Tigers’ pair of point guards made their names as quality defenders and will likely be assigned to try and stop Gillespie for the entire game. MU can’t afford an offensive explosion from the Vols’ leading scorer.
Trent Burns continuing to provide solid minutes at center
Gillespie might be the single most important player for Tennessee, but the team’s bread is buttered on the interior. The trio of Ament, Estrella and Okpara gives Barnes talent, depth and versatility that matches up with any group of big men in the SEC. It also allows him to ensure there’s at least one reliable forward on the court at any given time.
That’s a luxury Mizzou hasn’t had this year as the team’s depth at forward has been constantly challenged, often struggling to keep up with the more experienced big men in the conference when Shawn Phillips Jr. is out of the game — a frequent occurrence due to foul trouble. Luckily for the Tigers, there are signs that might be changing .
Trent Burns has looked reliable over his last two games, setting a career high in minutes and rebounds against Vanderbilt and then recording six points and two blocks in 13 minutes against the Razorbacks. Burns and Nicholas Randall have often looked overmatched during SEC play when taking the place of Phillips, disrupting the team’s momentum and struggling to contribute on the offensive end.
But the 7-foot-5 redshirt freshman has more than held his own in his last two outings, a development that could be huge for MU ahead of its matchup with a tall and talented Volunteers team and for the remainder of this season. Tennessee’s forward depth would have been a major advantage and an area Barnes’ squad could exploit against the Tigers for most of the season. We’ll see if Burns can continue his run of solid play and limit that advantage.
Run up the margin from beyond the arc
We’ve talked about Mizzou’s defensive strategy fairly often here at Rock M this season: try to shut down the opposing team in the paint and dare them to hit enough threes to compensate. There’s no reason for the Tigers to change this against the Vols, who rank outside the top 275 teams in Division I with just under 20 attempts from deep each game. Tennessee’s main perimeter threat is Gillespie, who has 78 made triples at a 35.6 percent shooting clip.
Mizzou hasn’t been the dynasty-era Warriors from beyond the arc this season, by any means, but the team has gotten productive perimeter shooting more consistently as of late. That includes the Tigers’ win over Vanderbilt, when they hit 10 of their 20 three-point attempts. MU isn’t likely to shoot it quite that well against the Volunteers, who have the second-best three-point shooting defense in the SEC, but it needs to at least hit enough shots to outpace its visitors from Knoxville.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Tennessee 82 – Mizzou 75
Outside of the 17-point loss to Texas, February has been Mizzou’s best month of the season. The Tigers have dramatically changed their tournament outlook and recorded a top-tier win over Vanderbilt, which could prove crucial to their fate when the bracket is revealed. They’ve also just been playing some really solid basketball, and Saturday’s loss to Arkansas felt far more like a Razorbacks win than an MU loss.
That being said, Tennessee is on a different level of heater right now. The Volunteers have been incredibly difficult to beat during conference play (unless your name is Mark Pope) and look like a team that could make some noise in March.
Don’t expect the same offensive fireworks as Saturday against Arkansas; these are two teams that prefer to control the interior and slow down the pace of the game. Whoever wins the battle in the paint is likely to come out on top in this matchup, and despite the Tigers’ improved form, I’ve got Tennessee in another tightly contested result.
I also predicted a Mizzou loss in my two most recent previews against Texas A&M and Vanderbilt; we’ll see if Dennis Gates’ squad can prove me wrong again and take another major step toward punching their ticket to the Big Dance.