Missouri basketball kept itself on the bubble, but that appears to be where the Tigers are destined to remain from now until Selection Sunday.
Mizzou (15-7, 5-4 SEC) split its games for the fourth straight week in conference play, taking a 26-point drubbing at Alabama on Tuesday before beating Mississippi State in a must-win spot on its home floor Saturday.
The Tigers will only play once this week, as they are idle in the midweek slate of games before traveling to face South Carolina on Saturday in Columbia, South Carolina — another massively important matchup for Dennis Gates’ team in the hunt for an NCAA Tournament berth.
Here’s what Missouri’s current tournament résumé looks like, and a glimpse at where the experts currently have the Tigers seeded and tabbed to travel for March Madness. All of the outlets’ projections were updated on the morning of Tuesday, Feb. 3
Current Missouri basketball NCAA Tournament résumé for 2026 March Madness
Missouri’s NET ranking: No. 69
Quad 1 record: 3-4
Quad 2 record: 0-3
Quad 3 record: 3-0
Quad 4 record: 9-0
Missouri has dropped one spot in the NET rankings between Tuesday, Jan. 27, and Tuesday, Feb. 3 and now is ranked No. 69 in the nation.
The quadrant system accounts for the location of the game and the opposing team’s NET ranking. Quad 1 games, for instance, are at home against teams ranked Nos. 1-30 in the NET, on a neutral court against teams ranked Nos. 1-50, and on the road against teams ranked Nos. 1-75.
The Tigers’ loss at Alabama was a Quad 1 game, while their win over Mississippi State currently is a Quad 3 victory, with the Bulldogs currently ranked No. 94 in the NET. Mizzou’s double-overtime win over Oklahoma also has dropped from a Quad 2 to a Quad 3 result based on the Sooners’ NET ranking.
USA Today lists Missouri basketball among ‘First Four Out’
Eddie Timanus, Erick Smith and Paul Myerberg at USA Today have moved Missouri into their ‘First Four Out’ category, which means the Tigers are currently not in their projected field but about as close to it as they possibly could be.
These are essentially the teams ranked Nos. 69-72 and just outside of the 68-team field. Mizzou is listed as the fourth-team out, just behind Miami, Virginia Tech and Seton Hall.
USA Today’s last four teams into the field are currently UCLA, New Mexico, Ohio State and Santa Clara.
It’s worth keeping an eye on all of the above teams throughout February. They make up Mizzou’s primary competitors for an NCAA Tournament berth this year.
ESPN: Missouri basketball still among ‘Next Four Out’
Joe Lunardi at ESPN has Missouri as the fifth team out of the field in his updated projection on Tuesday, Feb. 3. He listed the Tigers as the first team his “Next Four Out” category, which are the team’s ranked No. 73-76 in his projections.
ESPN’s last four teams into the field are USC, Ohio State, San Diego State and Texas. The current first four teams out of the field are Virginia Tech, California, Seton Hall and Santa Clara.
CBS Sports: A trip to Dayton in MU’s future?
The Tigers are sneaking into the field over at CBS Sports with a trip to the First Four.
The latest CBS Sports Bracketology model has tabbed Mizzou as one of the last four teams into the field, meaning the Tigers would be an 11-seed and off to Dayton, Ohio, for a matchup against Seton Hall. Saint Mary’s and New Mexico are the other teams going to Dayton in this projection.
Bart Torvik: Chance to dance remains below 20%
Mizzou’s 1-1 week, with a loss at Alabama and a win over Mississippi State, hasn’t greatly altered the Tigers’ projected chance of making the March Madness field in Bart Torvik’s algorithm.
The analytics site currently gives Mizzou a 16.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as of Feb. 3, which is based on 10,000 simulations run through its T-Ranketology projections.
That has dropped from a 17.1% chance on Jan. 27.
That places Missouri as the sixth-team out of the field, which would make it the top-ranked SEC team left out of the field and among the ‘Next Four Out’ category in Torvik’s simulation.
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Is Missouri basketball projected to make March Madness? Latest bracketology