It is going to be hard for the Illinois basketball team to get back to the Final Four because, well, there are nearly 400 teams vying for just four spots.
What the Illini accomplished last season was impressive. Getting to the Final Four is a great achievement, but I want more. The expectations have changed, and I want a national championship.
While it was already extremely difficult to get to the Final Four, you then add in the fact that Illinois lost a top 10 NBA Draft pick from that squad. The 2026-27 team should take a step backward, naturally. But there is a chance that isn't the case. Actually, I think Illinois might be even better than that Final Four squad.
There is one stat that has been a strong determinant of whether the Illinois basketball team succeeds or fails.
Three-point shooting.
During the 2025-26 campaign, Illinois shot 34.5% from three-point range, ranking No. 142 in the country. That is around the number that we are looking to hit. We went to the Final Four shooting 34.5%.
- 2025-26 – 34.5% – Final Four (3-seed)
- 2024-25 – 31.3% – 2nd Round (6-seed)
- 2023-24 – 34.9% – Elite 8 (3-seed)
- 2022-23 – 30.8% – 1st Round (9-seed)
- 2021-22 – 35.9% – 2nd Round (4-seed)
- 2020-21 – 37.2% – 2nd Round (1-seed)
I know it sounds obvious, make more three-pointers, have more success. With Illinois, that is magnified greatly, as we rely on the three-point shot a lot.
Illinois was pretty good from beyond the three-point arc last season. We also had some departures that will shake the three-point number up a bit.
Keaton Wagler is the biggest hit from deep. He was second on the team, hitting 39.7% from three-point range. Here is what Illinois is losing from deep.
- Keaton Wagler – 39.7%
- Ben Humrichous – 36.1%
- Kylan Boswell – 30.7%
Wagler and Humrichous are big hits from three-point range, and even Boswell can light it up on any given night. That is some solid production that will be hard to replace. I think Brad Underwood did it, though.
So, Illinois had two players who shot over 36% but under 40% from three-point range depart. The incoming talent has combated those missing pieces and then some.
Quentin Coleman leads the way among the newcomers. The soon-to-be-freshman hit 50.6% from three-point range as a senior. That is a 31-game sample size. He also hit 35% for Team USA this summer in a much smaller sample size. Here are the newcomers and what they shot from three-point range in their most recent seasons.
- Quentin Coleman – 50.6%
- Zavier Zens – 41.6%
- Landon Davis – 40.0%
- Lucas Morillo – 39.6%
- Stefan Vaaks – 35.0%
The college game is completely different than at the high school level, so most of these numbers will come back down to Earth a little bit. But shooting talent is shooting talent.
At the end of the day, Illinois is losing two good three-point shooters who averaged 36.1% and 39.7%, but we are adding five shooters from deep who have shot at least 35% in their most recent season.
Getting back to the 34.5% three-point shooting that the Final Four team saw last season shouldn't be a problem. This is a number that is very achievable, and hitting that number should have Illinois see tremendous success once again.
While the newcomers can light it up from three-point range, Illinois basketball still has talent on the roster that is ready to improve
I am raving about the incoming talent on the Illinois roster that can put up big numbers from distance, but I haven't even mentioned the fact that multiple players last season had bad shooting years.
You know Andrej Stojakovic is going to be in the lab this summer working on his shooting. I would put the mortgage payment on him improving on his 24.4% three-point shooting.
Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic both had the worst shooting seasons of their careers. Tomislav hit 35.7% as a freshman and was down to 31.3% last season. Meanwhile, Zvonimir was a 37.5% three-point shooter his first two years in college, and only hit 28.0% last season. Those numbers are bound to improve.
Illinois lost one of the top players in the country from a Final Four team. Underwood didn't flinch. He went out and built an Illinois roster that actually might be better than that memorable squad from months ago. The Orange and Blue are locked and loaded for the 2026-27 season.
- Quentin Coleman throwing up eye-popping numbers months before entering the Illinois basketball program
- Keaton Wagler's confusing drop in NBA mock draft would be beneficial
- Shauna Green tapping into Iowa market as Illinois lays groundwork for the future
- Top 10 NBA Playoff masterpieces by an Illinois basketball player
This article was originally published on www.writingillini.com as A crucial stat that shows the 2026-27 Illinois basketball team might be better than the Final Four squad.