The Wisconsin Badgers have had an eventful season, with many peaks and valleys up until this point. The team started blazing hot against mid-major opponents, though it then lost by 28 to BYU in Salt Lake City, Utah. It continued with a 104-point performance against Providence, but lost to TCU the very next day. The Badgers then won both their Big Ten conference opener and their in-state rivalry game against Marquette. However, they subsequently lost to Nebraska by 34 points a few days later.
Greg Gard's squad always finds a way to keep things interesting. During a six-game stretch that saw the Badgers go 3-3 overall and 1-3 against Big Ten teams, the team traveled to Ann Arbor, Michigan, and defeated the then-undefeated Michigan Wolverines. Since that huge upset victory, the Badgers are 5-1 and sit at fifth place in the Big Ten standings, above teams like Purdue, Iowa, and Indiana. This late surge has put Wisconsin in a solid position to make the NCAA Tournament, but there is still work to be done. With games against two of the top-four teams in the conference still on the schedule, Wisconsin will need to stay consistent down the stretch and continue to win games.
With only a little over a month left in the regular season, here is Wisconsin's ceiling, floor, and my prediction for the rest of the season:
Wisconsin's ceiling: 5-6 seed in NCAA Tournament
The Wisconsin Badgers control their destiny to an extent, with many big Quadrant 1 games still left on the schedule. Seven of the final nine games for the Badgers are Quad 1 opportunities, but only two of those are home games. If the team continues to shoot well from three and make these miraculous comebacks when getting down early, winning seven of these games isn't out of the question. Wisconsin would need to beat both Michigan State and Iowa at home to make this happen. Crazier things have happened, and the Badgers match up quite well with both of those teams. Beating two near-tournament locks would bolster Wisconsin's resume and give the team enough of an argument for a No. 5 or No. 6-seed, which is pretty impressive considering how the season looked just a month ago.
Wisconsin's floor: Bubble team/First Four Out
Don't get me wrong, Wisconsin is trending towards making the tournament, and I expected the team to make the field. However, if the Badgers end up struggling in some of their key games in this final nine-game stretch, especially on the road, it could get interesting. The win against Michigan is still Wisconsin's only Quad 1 victory this season, which makes the team's resume intriguing. Some may argue that the Michigan win should be worth two or three times as much as a normal Quad 1 victory, while others might argue that only winning one Q1 game this season shows how inconsistent the Badgers have been. I lean more towards the former argument, but it is fair to say that Wisconsin doesn't have as many good wins as a normal tournament team should.
If Wisconsin fails to win either of the home games against MSU and Iowa and struggles against other Big Ten bubble teams like Indiana and Ohio State, it might take a strong Big Ten Tournament performance to keep the Badgers on the right side of the bubble. I don't expect this to happen. But never say never, as the last few games on the schedule aren't cake walks.
Most likely outcome: Wisconsin finishes as 7-8 seed
As mentioned before, I expect the NCAA tournament committee to value the win against Michigan three times as much as a normal Q1 victory. I also expect Wisconsin to pick up a few more Q1 wins in these next few games, such as at Indiana, Ohio State, and Washington, and at home against Iowa. The Badgers feel like a team of destiny up until this point, and it's hard for me to see a world where they miss the tournament. They can't get complacent, but I have too much faith in Gard and this team, and feel good about them finishing as a seven or eight seed.
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This article originally appeared on Badgers Wire: Wisconsin basketball NCAA Tournament prediction, schedule preview