In what has seemed like a decade-long saga, which began with two Southern California schools looking for greener pastures in the Midwest. We are days away from a historical moment in college basketball.
It’s not often you get to see the creation of a new NCAA conference. Well, technically, what you’ll see next month is more of a remodel-underway sort of deal. But still, the Pac-12 is back and currently equipped to be one of the toughest conferences in the western half of the United States.
Though before things are officially tipped off this weekend, we’ll take a look at five thoughts surrounding one of two “new” conferences making debuts this season.
This isn’t your grandfather’s Pac-12
Great use of “Star Wars” style graphics aside. No, this will not be the Pac-12 you nor I grew up watching on late nights. Yes, “Pac-12 after dark!” will still be a tagline used all season — now available in the Central Time Zone, funny enough. Yes, there are a few holdovers in Oregon State and Washington State. But the majority of this conference’s membership is new to the league.
The way I see it, the situation feels similar to what the Big East went through over a decade ago. Yes, the new Big East didn’t sponsor football anymore. And the teams they added to join the Catholic Seven from the original conference were mid-major powerhouses at the time, with multiple conference titles and NCAA Tournament appearances under their belt before joining. Several of the Pac-12’s new additions fit that same mold. Boise State’s recent track record stands out, while Utah State has become a springboard for eventual high-major coaches.
The Big East moves benefited those programs, as they enjoyed immediate success in their new conference. Since then, all three have combined for just two regular-season titles, and none have won a conference tournament title.
Will the new Pac-12 programs find a similar struggle? Well, unlike the Big East, there are fewer “high-majors” to challenge right away. With several programs not named Gonzaga showing continued investment in their basketball programs, we may see that resource and talent gap the Bulldogs currently boast shrink. But expect an adjustment period on the court as well as on the recruiting trail. For now, it seems like transfers and new recruits are aware of the new Pac-12’s membership. We see more and more top-75 prospects with Boise State, Oregon State, Utah State, and even Texas State on their final lists.
Is the Pac-12 the 6th-best conference in the country?
Immediately, when those fabled fanbase debates on Twitter/X began heating up about which conference was going to be better, everyone ran to KenPom. A de facto way of saying, “Look, we as a whole are better than you as a whole.” And Pac-12 stans are right.
As a whole, the new Pac-12 membership is metrically far above their Mountain West peers.
Pac-12-Five Year KenPom Group Average: 89.8, Highest Average Team: Gonzaga 8.8, Lowest Average Team: Texas State 189.2
Mountain West-Five Year KenPom Group Average 146.64, Highest Average Team: New Mexico 68.6, Lowest Average Team: Air Force 267.0
The numbers don’t lie, even if the Pac-12’s are slightly inflated with Gonzaga’s stellar track record to lean on. They also have three schools in Boise State (45.6), San Diego State (32.2) and Utah State (45.4) whose averages were in the top 50.
The Mountain West boasts no programs in the top 50, and has two in the 200s (Air Force, 267.0, and San Jose State, 204.8). Now, will this be the new normal going forward? Who’s to say, really? These end-of-year KenPom rankings vary greatly for some teams, with several factors to consider. Washington State was a consistent top-75 team in the Pac-12 but struggled more in the WCC. San Jose State even managed a top-100 year, surrounded by abysmal years.
I can imagine playing Gonzaga twice a year will give everyone in the Pac-12 a chance at two Quad-1 wins. And with its worst program’s average in the mid-100s and further investment in its roster taking place, we may only see the Pac-12’s metrics and rankings rise further. Creating more distance between themselves and other mid-majors. Only time will tell, but I am fully on board for any Bulldog upsets this winter.
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Is the Pac-12 still a high-major conference?
One narrative that has been continuously driven forward by new members and their fans is simple: “This is still a high-major league.” But to answer this question, we have to ask ourselves what makes a high-major. The holy trinity of sorts that creates a high-major program can be broken down into three categories: consistent high-level success, deep NIL/operating budgets, and hefty media payouts.
Adding Gonzaga was surely a step in the right direction, as were programs like Boise State, San Diego State, and Utah State, which, as mentioned above, consistently find themselves in KenPom’s top 50. A position plenty of high-major teams would like to find themselves in each season.
So, metrically, a big chunk of these programs compete at a high-major level every season. But what else is required to fully leave the mid-major moniker behind? At the end of the day, high-major designation often comes simply via high operating budgets (or enough people willing it into existence). I wouldn’t say the higher the operating budget/NIL war chest, the more success. As we’ve seen in the past, $20 million rosters don’t guarantee national championships.
But what does mid-major NIL spending currently look like? Well, CBS Sports’ Matt Norlander did some digging and some speculation and discovered the biggest mid-major spender is likely (drumroll), Grand Canyon, with several high-major impact players on the Lopes’ Roster.
Do the current Pac-12 programs spend like high-majors on their rosters? No. The closest are the Aztecs and Aggies in that $5-8 million range. Though, it’s not easy keeping up with the Joneses these days. With no “salary” cap in sight, big-time programs seem to be essentially doubling their NIL war chests. Only around $7 million would build you a high-major roster. Now, that may only secure your big or point guard.
But do all high-majors spend this way? No. According to Norlander and Isaac Trotter, programs like Boston College, Colorado, Kansas State and Washington all only spend around $5-7 million total on their roster. Some of the Pac-12 teams are already in that range. So, does that make this a high-major conference?
You also have to factor in a program’s operating budget. The highest men’s basketball operating budget in the new Pac-12 (not named Gonzaga) is San Diego State, which spends about $9 million on its program annually. Most other new additions are not far behind, but not that close either.
This is a metric that certainly opens eyes. Duke spent around $25 million to operate its men’s basketball program, second only to Kentucky, which spent about $5 million more. Gonzaga’s numbers are private, but estimates put it anywhere from $ 12- 15 million, not too far behind the Blue Devils. The lowest high-major operating budget I found via Google and subsequent website exploration was Colorado. The Buffaloes boasted an operating budget of around $8.6 million. Putting the highest-spending Pac-12 school (not in Spokane) at the very bottom of men’s basketball spending.
Lastly, Pac-12 leadership certainly did a great job when it secured its longstanding media rights deal last year. The deal is estimated at anywhere from $10-12 million per year. That is a win for all schools, which were receiving considerably less in their previous conferences. Is it Big Ten money? Of course not. It doesn’t even move into the same neighborhood as the least lucrative high-major payout, which is the Big 12 at around $40.5 million per institution. As the gap widens between the Big 12 and its power conference counterparts, it’s more of a canyon between the Pac-12 and the conferences they’d love to be associated with.
So, is the Pac-12 a high-major? Does it have above-average competitive programs? Most certainly. Does it have the cash flow to build above-average rosters and operate at a high level? Yes, but only at the top, meaning the tippity-top, and the tippity-top only. Now, does it have a media payout to rival even the bottom half of power conferences? No, certainly not.
Roster uncertainty throughout the Pac-12
If you’re anything like me and you enjoy constructing new rosters beginning in April and slowly piecing them together with all the minutiae, then you’ve likely been driving a bit mad with all of the state-by-state lawsuits, rulings & temporary restraining orders. I never expected to know so much about TROs, but I digress.
The Pac-12 isn’t immune to roster uncertainty, with some of its most anticipated stars still awaiting eligibility rulings in lawsuits across multiple states. Boise State has Lamar Washington, a likely starter with an uncertain future. And the Aztecs recently had all three of their Euro prospects cleared by the NCAA.
Gonzaga lost a couple of European prospects. Combo guard Jack Kayil, who committed to the Zags, opted to remain in the 2026 NBA Draft and was drafted in the second round, then traded to the reigning NBA Champion New York Knicks. However, the German prospect has opted to remain in his home country. A move to the U.S. proved to be too difficult with the Knicks’ financial cutbacks. So, in August, Kayil signed a five-year contract extension to remain in Germany with Alba Berlin for the foreseeable future, as the Knicks retain his rights.
Then, fellow projected starting guard Mario Saint-Supéry, who was on last season’s Bulldogs squad, opted to return to Spain and sign a more lucrative multi-year deal with Valencia Basket. It wasn’t pretty to watch if you’re a Gonzaga fan.
Is the Pac-12 Gonzaga’s to lose?
Is Gonzaga the de facto conference champion before a single minute is played? Of course not, though the Bulldogs are basically everyone’s preseason favorite. The Zags are everyone’s circled date on the calendar, both at the Kennel and when Mark Few’s guys come to town.
Even with the roster uncertainty in Spokane, Gonzaga is certainly the frontrunner. A core of eligible players in Braden Huff, Davis Fogle, Isiah Harwell, and Massamba Diop is certainly enough to challenge for the top of the Pac-12. But to dominate and make a run at a Final Four appearance, they’ll need their fifth-year magic to work. The most well-equipped of their conference mates to usurp the big dogs are San Diego State and Utah State.
San Diego State had to reload this offseason, losing much of its still-eligible talent to the portal. After restocking with a huge chunk of international talent and mid-major transfers, it’s unclear how well Brian Dutcher will mix some solid returners with this new bunch. But that has always been the Aztecs’ story arc under Dutcher. The first few months of the season are turbulent, melding things together. But watch out for them in conference play, as they’ve already figured most things out.
The Aggies bring back Player of the Year candidate Mason Falslev and Karson Templin but are in a similar boat to their SoCal conference mates. The rest of the roster is supplemented with mid-major starters and Dallin Hall, a former ACC starter who may or may not be eligible as a fifth-year transfer.
Then there are some dark horse teams to watch, like Oregon State, with an impressive roster built around star returner Josiah Lake II. Boise State is another team that will be competitive simply because they have the second-longest-tenured head coach at a Pac-12 school, Leon Rice. He’s a Mark Few protégé and served as assistant coach and associate head coach for over a decade in Spokane. The Broncos are also in reload mode, but don’t count a Rice-coached team out just yet.
Closing Pac-12 thoughts
In all reality, what the Pac-12 did to survive obviously created some enemies. At least the brand name and history live on. I mean, just think about once-strong conference brands like the Southwest Conference, East Coast Conference, or even the Yankee Conference that ceased to exist.
The conference has certainly been built to be an entertaining mid-major coalition with an above average media payout. Are they a high-major? Right now, no. But there is potential there, though for now we’ll cover them at Mid-Major Madness.