The best time in the college basketball season is here: March Madness.
The Round of 64 begins on Thursday with games taking place from morning until evening, and everyone is wondering if a Cinderella team will make a run this time.
The 2025 NCAA Tournament lacked major upsets, and it ended with all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four.
What will happen this time?
Keith Lipscomb of ESPN wrote a feature showing the most probable upsets for the Round of 64 based on ESPN's BPI projections.
And, here are five potential upsets for Thursday's slate of games.
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 North Carolina
Upset Chance: 39%
The season-ending thumb injury to North Carolina freshman Caleb Wilson is a big reason why this number is so high. And, VCU just won the Atlantic-10 Tournament and has a six-game winning streak and 16 wins in its last 17 games entering this one.
No. 11 Texas vs. No 6 BYU
Upset Chance: 37%
Wait, potential No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa's BYU team going home in the Round of 64? It could happen. Nine of BYU's 12 losses have come since January 26, although some of those include Arizona, Kansas (twice) and Houston (twice).
Still, BYU has losses in that span to Oklahoma State, Cincinnati by 22 points, and West Virginia, so there are concerns.
On the other hand, Texas just stunned NC State with a last-second shot by Tramon Mark in the First Four, and Sean Miller has been to the tournament a few times in his career.
ARE YOU KIDDING!!!
TEXAS GOES BACK IN FRONT 😱 #MarchMadnesspic.twitter.com/UE1EUjYjLc
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 18, 2026
No. 12 High Point vs. No. 5 Wisconsin
Upset Chance: 24%
Yes, everyone wants to pick a No. 12 seed, and maybe High Point is that team. However, the Wisconsin backcourt of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell is on fire, and that bodes well for the Badgers.
"High Point is the only 12-seed with at least a 20% chance to win, according to the model, and this could be one of the highest-scoring games of the first round," Lipscomb wrote.
No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 Louisville
Upset Chance: 19%
The big question is whether or not Louisville freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr. will play. South Florida is a hot team, and Bryan Hodgson just turned down the Syracuse job.
No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt
Upset Chance: 19%
Yes, that same McNesse team that Will Wade coached and defeated Clemson a year ago is back as a No. 12 seed. However, Vanderbilt made a stunning run to the SEC Tournament final, and it included a blowout win over Florida.
Related: Jay Bilas Predicts Winner of NCAA Tournament
This story was originally published by Lindys Sports on Mar 18, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add Lindys Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.