When the fifth ranked Illinois Fighting Illini arrive at the Breslin Center on Saturday evening, it will have been two weeks to the day since MSU beat the brakes off of Maryland, 91-48, to improve to 18-2 (8-1 B1G) on the season. Vibes were high in East Lansing, with another top-10 squad seemingly destined to compete for a Big Ten Title. Jeremy Fears and Jaxon Kohler were double double machines, Carson Cooper had developed into a legitimate offensive threat, and the Spartan defense was the best in the land. That’s all before mentioning the consistent highlight reel dunker in Coen Carr. It felt like the worst case scenario for MSU would be a two seed in March.
Since then, the Spartans have found themselves in another late-January/early-February slump. After barely squeaking by Rutgers on the road, getting embarrassed at home versus Dusty May’s team of mercenaries, and laying an egg in the Barn against Minnesota, Michigan State now limps into this top-10 showdown with a 19-4 record (9-3 B1G).
This team has taken gut punch after gut punch in the last week; from a rivalry loss on their home court, to losing in court-storming fashion to a team with a below .500 record, along with the national media placing point guard and leader Jeremy Fears under a microscope for his antics. To add insult to injury, starting shooting guard (and backup point guard) Divine Ugochukwu went down in Minneapolis with a foot injury, and as of Friday afternoon he will be out for the season. Things are snowballing quickly for the now-71 year old Tom Izzo. Is this just the usual midseason slip-up for State? Or a telling sign of greater problems with the 2025-26 squad? Only time will tell.
The mood is drastically different in Champaign-Urbana, Illinois, where Brad Underwood has the Fighting Illini riding high. They will come into Saturday’s game sporting a 12-game winning streak, with road wins against both Purdue and Nebraska bolstering their resume. Let’s take a look at the projected starting five for the team with a 20-3 record.
#23 – Keaton Wagler, Guard. 6’6 180 lbs.
#2 – Andrej Stojaković, Guard. 6’7 205 lbs.
#15 – Jake Davis, Forward. 6’6 205 lbs.
#0 – David Mirković, Forward. 6’9 255 lbs.
#13 – Tomislav Ivišić, Center. 7’1 255 lbs.
One word- size. As for rotation, the Illini took a hit earlier in the season with an injury to standout guard Kylan Boswell. The senior and Champaign native was averaging 14.3 points per game, yet his absence has not been felt nearly as dramatically as expected. That is in large part thanks to the emergence of freshman Keaton Wagler. The 19-year old and formerly low-ranked recruit has burst onto the scene this season, averaging 17.9 points, 5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists. Wagler shoots the three ball at a beyond impressive clip of 44.4%, and he isn’t the only three point assassin for the Illini. Jake Davis shoots it at 41%, Mirković boasts a 38.6% conversion from deep, the 7-footer Ivišić is good for 34.8% of his long balls, and his fellow large human of a brother, Zvonimir Ivišić, tops him with a 36.2% line. Speaking of the second Ivišić brother, “Big Z” gives his brother rest at the 5-man spot, and along with forward Ben Humrichous, rounds out the usual 7-deep that is the go-to arsenal for coach Brad Underwood.
#44 – Zvonimir Ivišić, Center. 7’2 245 lbs.
#3 – Ben Humrichous, Forward. 6’9 225 lbs.
So, we’ve established that Illinois has size. Beyond just being tall, nearly every player in their rotation can shoot the long ball. Both of the Ivišić brothers It goes without saying, they have a beyond proficient offensive attack. Underwood has his guys running an NBA-style spread offense, where most of the action comes from out on the perimeter, and it has worked wonders. Perhaps the best example of this success is the Illini’s win over Purdue in hostile Mackey Arena. Keaton Wagler, a freshman playing in West Lafayette for the first time, was able to drop 46 points, setting an Illinois program record with 46 points, the most points ever scored by a visitor against a top-10 opponent in national AP poll history.
It hasn’t all been the four-time B1G freshman of the week for UofI though, as Wednesday night’s drubbing of Northwestern at home gave Illini fans a glimpse at what their squad can look like when everyone is firing on all cylinders. In an 84-44 win, Wagler, Humrichous and Ivišić all put up 13 apiece, Andrej Stojaković contributed 17, and David Mirković had 12 of his own. Balanced, efficient, dominant basketball from both the “Balkan Five” and the rest of the Illinois lineup.
Defensively, Underwood and company have undergone a complete identity shift. This past off-season, UofI brought in Assistant Coach Camryn Crocker from Colgate, and gave him the role of “Defensive Coordinator”, taking a page out of a football coaching staff. The old high-pressure, tight man-to-man defense for Illinois is no more under Crocker. Rather than sporadic full-court pressure and denial of the ball along the perimeter throughout the game, the Illini now are more than willing to sag off the three-point line and allow their opponents to attempt a large volume of threes. This is bolstered by the interchangeability of the Illinois defense, as they have mixed in both matchup zones and a heavy dose of 2-3 zone looks. With their size and length, the 2-3 zone has seen serious success and helped moved UofI up to 19th nationally in defensive efficiency according to KenPom.
Here’s Brad Underwood on the new Illinois defensive mentality- “We’re giving up more (3-pointers) because we’re trying not to give up as many 2s and as many layups. Those are 100% shots … We’re going to give up some 3s but we’re going to count on not giving up 2s and not giving up 100% shots as much.”
To sum up how the Fighting Illini have gotten off to such a great start in just one sentence: defensive consolidation and the clogging of the lane paired with a historically efficient and high powered shooting offense on the other end.
This is not what Tom Izzo or any Michigan State fan wants to hear. For a squad that has traditionally struggled mightily against zone defenses and from three point land, this game will be a challenge offensively for the Spartans to say the least. Defensively, MSU will have to play big and emphasize going over ballscreens to contest the three point shot.
Let’s walk through some keys to the game MSU will need to emerge victorious.
The (Defensive) Floor General
Aside from all the noise around point guard Jeremy Fears, this game will come down to his play in more ways than one. Illinois does not have a true point guard, and since the injury to Kylan Boswell has been lacking in terms of ball-handling. While they have been able to overcome this slight weakness in recent games, the Illini have not faced a feisty defender on the level of Fears yet this season. If Jeremy can provide constant defensive pressure (WITHOUT FOULING!) on Wagler and the Illinois guards, there is a world in which MSU can create turnovers, speed up, and disrupt the rhythm of the UofI offense.
The Kohler Bear- Out of Hibernation
This one is a non-negotiable. Jaxon Kohler started out the year playing like a man possessed. It seemed like every other possession Jax would grab a big time rebound or knock down a three, and accompany it with a war-cry of a yell in terms of celebration. Michigan State has been missing this intensity in the past month or so. We’ve already established that Illinois baits its opponents to fire off more three-pointers than usual, and Kohler will likely get several good looks from behind the arc against the Illini zone. For the Spartans to get this home win, Jax will need to have a performance like he did a year ago against Illinois.
Who Will Fill Divine’s Shoes?
Saturday night will mark MSU’s first game without Divine Ugochukwu. Besides just a shooting guard who knocks down 44% of his threes, Divine brought ever-important ball handling abilities as a backup point guard to Jeremy Fears. With freshman Jordan Scott receiving his first start of the season last game at Minnesota, it can be assumed that Coach Izzo was planning on transitioning Divine back into more of that second PG role. However, with Ugo out til next season, this plan is thrown out the window. Spartan fans will be happy to see more minutes for fan-favorite hustle player Jordan Scott at the 2, and likely a bit less happy to see more minutes for Denham Wojcik at the point guard spot giving Fears a breather.
Another player to watch is the transfer SG, Trey Fort. The multi-time transfer guard has gotten up close and personal with the bench in the past few months, but is coming off of a 4-7 outing from three against Minnesota. If Fort has even slightly improved his defense, Trey certainly deserves more opportunities on the wing and will provide a much-needed lift from downtown.
Here’s what Coach Izzo had to say about Trey during media availability Friday: “He has hung in there, and that’s the beauty of it. … It wasn’t like he moped. It’d be kind of cool if he came on and had a good finish”
Strength in Numbers
Illinois is a team that gets contribution from every position. Michigan State will similarly need all hands on deck to knock off the number 5 ranked team in all the land.
However, strength in numbers is more than just a cliche for announcers to say. For Tom Izzo and MSU basketball it has become a mantra. No one person is bigger than the team, the culture, the program. In the past few games, State has gotten away from that mentality. From players making arrogant comments to unnecessary fouls involving kicking players in the groin, Michigan State is in a bit of an identity crisis. The good news? Opportunity knocks. With a red-hot ranked opponent coming to town on Saturday, in the words of Spartan great Kenny Goins: “You either nut up or shut up right now… It’s time for guys to step up. It’s all heart and balls right now.”
