Illinois will kick off its season on September 3 against UAB. Expectations are modest for the Illini this season following back-to-back nine-win seasons, but another eight-win regular season is not out of the question.
The Illini have to replace numerous talented players from last season, but they are still expected to win around seven or eight games according to the Las Vegas odds. There are multiple swing games on the schedule, but I have highlighted the five most important games for Illinois to reach at least eight wins.
Oregon and Ohio State might be the biggest games of the year, but I view these as the most important games because they could go either way.
- Nebraska
Nebraska should be in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten next season in Matt Rhule’s fourth season as head coach. UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea is expected to take over the quarterback duties and try to lead the Cornhuskers to their first eight-plus-win season since 2016.
According to ESPN’s Power Index Rankings, Nebraska is ranked No. 9 and Illinois is No. 10 in the conference, so this game could go either way. These two teams had an instant classic back in 2024, and I expect another close one inside Memorial Stadium. A win here would give the Illini a victory against an evenly matched opponent and momentum heading into other winnable games to end the season.
- Northwestern
Northwestern will host Illinois on the final day of the regular season inside its new stadium. The highly anticipated, recently built stadium should attract fans of both the Wildcats and the Illini. The spread opened at -3.5 points in favor of Illinois, so this should be a back-and-forth battle in Evanston.
The Illini have controlled the rivalry in recent years, but this year's matchup will likely be the most even it has been in a few seasons. It is always a must-win against the in-state rival Wildcats, but it feels like this one could be the difference between a good season and a great season.
- UCLA
UCLA is another sneaky-tough road game that Illinois will have to overcome on its 2026 schedule. The Bruins have a new coach and are expected to be near the middle of the standings, so this will not be an easy win on the other side of the country.
It will be the first time Bret Bielema and Illinois make the trip to UCLA, and it will likely be another close game the Illini will need to grind out.
- Michigan State
Like UCLA, Michigan State has a new coach coming in for 2026. A familiar face in Pat Fitzgerald will take over as head coach, and he has owned the Illini over the years. At Northwestern, he took the Wildcats to heights nobody thought possible in the middle of the last decade.
Fitzgerald faces a new challenge at Michigan State in Year 1, but the Spartans will not be an easy win on the road. Michigan State will likely be a tier below Nebraska, Northwestern and UCLA, but the Illini cannot overlook the Spartans on the second Saturday in October.
- Maryland
People have called this Maryland game the biggest trap game of the year since it is sandwiched between Oregon and Nebraska. Maryland is expected to be on a similar level to Michigan State this year, so a win here is essential if the Illini want to have a successful season.
This is the least of the “toss-up” games on the list, but a road game in the Big Ten is never easy. Illinois cannot lose these types of games if it wants to make a high-level bowl game.
Duke and Iowa were considered for this list but were viewed as less of toss-up games. Beating the Blue Devils at home in the only challenging non-conference game should be expected, while Iowa will be tough to beat even at home.
Winning at least four of five against Nebraska, Northwestern, UCLA, Michigan State and Maryland would ensure the Illini get to at least seven wins on the year, including wins over UAB, Southern Illinois and Purdue. Eight or nine wins would likely be within reach with a win over either Duke or Iowa.