After just four years in Champaign, Illinois women's basketball coach Shauna Green has completely turned around a long-mediocre program. Green has led the Illini to the NCAA Tournament in three of her four seasons, and in each of the past two seasons Illinois has won a tournament game – its first since the turn of the century.
With all five starters returning from the 2025-26 club, expectations are as high as they have been since the early years of Theresa Grentz's tenure, back in the late 1990s. So what are realistic expectations Illini fans should have for this team?
Is Illinois capable of winning the Big Ten regular-season title?
No, they're not. As experienced and talented as the Illini may be this season, the Big Ten is absolutely stacked with talent – and they don't quite measure up.
Illinois may be capable of knocking off a UCLA, Iowa, Michigan or USC somewhere along the way this season, but over the long haul, those other schools figure to rise above the Illini in the conference standings.
That doesn't mean, however, that Illinois isn't capable of finishing as a top-five team in women's college basketball's most talent-laden league. And that would represent a major step forward for the Illini, especially given that they have finished fifth or better in the Big Ten just once over the past 13 seasons.
Is Illinois capable of winning the Big Ten Tournament title?
With a hot streak and a little luck over one week in early March, could the Illini beat the best of the Big Ten's best and pull off a conference tournament title? Even that is almost certainly a bridge too far. But they don't need to win a conference title – in the regular season or the Big Ten tournament – to make the NCAA Tournament.
I could imagine Illinois making it to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, but UCLA and USC are on a different level. Unless the Bruins and Trojans wind up playing one another in the semis – which is highly unlikely – I don't see the Illini getting past the conference tournament semis.
Obviously, the Big Ten Tournament is months and months away – a lot can change in that time – but for now Illinois doesn't appear to have a shot at that title.
Is this the year Illinois makes it to the Sweet 16?
I think it is. Illinois definitely has the right coach in Green and, most importantly, the Illini are bringing back that starting five from last season. That's just super-rare in today's world of college basketball, including the women.
As long as Illinois is at least a seven seed in the NCAA Tournament, it should be well positioned to win a couple of tournament games. The Illini have as much continuity as any team in the country, feature an elite stretch forward in Berry Wallace and were the second-best team in the country from the free-throw line last season – a huge advantage in tight, one-and-done tournament games.
Berry Wallace
Unanimous First Team All-Big Ten by the Coaches
Second Team by Media pic.twitter.com/9ag9YVZXRz– Illinois Women's Basketball (@IlliniWBB) March 3, 2026
Will Illinois have someone selected in this year's WNBA Draft?
Probably not. Illinois hasn't had a player drafted since Jenna Smith went in the second round back in 2010, and that trend doesn't figure to change this year.
It's not because Illinois' roster contains no one worthy of a pick in the WNBA Draft but mostly because the Illini's top players are all non-seniors. Only Maddie Webber and Jasmine Brown-Hagger are entering their final years of eligibility, and as of now, neither projects to go in the WNBA Draft.
Who is the key to Illinois' success in 2026-27?
If you ask me, this is a no-brainer: Aaliyah Guyton. Every team needs an elite bench player, and that's exactly what Guyton is. She showed flashes of stardom last season after transferring from Iowa, and she seems likely to take another step forward in 2026-27.
A perfect 6-for-6 night from three for Aaliyah Guyton
The @IlliniWBB sophomore dropped a career-high 22 PTS in the win over Wisconsin pic.twitter.com/toDufTYUHc
– Big Ten Women's Basketball (@B1Gwbball) February 12, 2026
Guyton can really shoot it, and when Illinois is in a scoring funk, she needs to be the one to spark the offense and give the Illini another reliably explosive option behind Berry.
The big question is, can Guyton score more consistently off the dribble? If she boosts that aspect of her game, she'll play a major role in Illinois having its best season under Green yet.
Today's best reads
- Illinois Women's Basketball Ranked to Open the Season – Are They Deserving?
- First Look at Illinois Football's Week 8 Opponent: Oregon Ducks
- Season of Expectations: Illinois' David Mirkovic Named AP Preseason All-American
- How to Watch Illinois Basketball vs Baylor Exhibition Game
- Brad Underwood Quotes to Know After Illinois' Exhibition Win Over Cincinnati
This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/illinois as 5 Expectations for Illinois Women's Basketball in 2026-27.