2026 Big East Men’s Basketball Tournament
First Round
#7 Marquette Golden Eagles (12-19, 7-13 Big East) vs #10 Xavier Musketeers (14-17, 6-14 Big East)
Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Time: Approximately 5:30pm Central, but really 30 minutes after the end of #8 Butler vs #9 Providence, which starts at 3pm Central.
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York
Marquette Stats Leaders
Points: Nigel James, 16.4 ppg
Rebounds: Ben Gold, 5.6 rpg
Assists: Nigel James, 4.8 apg
Xavier Stats Leaders
Points: Tre Carroll, 18.0 ppg
Rebounds: Filip Borovicanin, 7.6 rpg
Assists: Filip Borovicanin, 4.2 apg
KenPom.com Rankings
Marquette: #86
Xavier: #97
Game Projection: Marquette has a 55% chance of victory with a predicted score of 79-77.
Earlier This Season: I remember the first meeting. I remember Marquette leading by double digits at the half, I remember leading by 13 in the second half. I remember bad turnovers by Chase Ross leading to Xavier taking the lead. I remember Nigel James defying logic and possibly physics to gain his own offensive rebound and find Ben Gold for a dunk. I remember Ben Gold missing at the free throw line, but defending Malik Messina-Moore’s final attempt at the horn enough to cause him problems. I remember Marquette winning at Fiserv.
I don’t remember the second meeting. Upon reflection, I do realize why I don’t. First: It’s because I wasn’t at home when the game in Cincinnati started, so I didn’t watch the 18-6 start turn into a 28-10 deficit with 12 minutes left in the first half. At that point, I had discarded the game as a lost cause…. but I also don’t remember much of anything that followed that point because that was also the game where TNT’s sideline reporter dropped the “Marquette will do what it takes to revamp this roster” news bomb. I spent most of the rest of the game writing that blog post up, but I should note that MU did go on a 47-29 run to get within three of the Musketeers with a bit over seven minutes left. That was way too much energy expended after trailing by 21 in the first place, and MU couldn’t do anything else and Xavier won by eight.
Since Last We Met: Xavier is just 1-5 since beating Marquette at Cintas Center to move to 13-12 on the season and 5-9 in the Big East. They lost in overtime to Villanova at home in their very next game, then couldn’t finish off a 20+ point comeback at Butler, then gave up a 17-3 run in the first half to Providence at the AMP before losing by 10. The next game was their win, defending home court in a 91-84 victory against Georgetown. After that, they got outscored 21-8 in the final 11 minutes and change at home against Seton Hall in a 77-68 loss, and then lost a 91-78 Game Of Runs at Villanova in the regular season finale. Seriously, though, that game was wild, with KenPom.com noting a 21-3 and 15-2 VU run in the first half (42-23 Wildcats after that), and then a 12-2 run for Xavier to make it interesting before Nova threw an 11-0 fastball to end XU’s chances with about eight minutes left.
Tempo Free Fun: Six of Marquette’s 11 best defensive performances of the season have come in the last 10 games. We can push it a little bit further and say six of the 12 times that Marquette has held a team under a point per possession, if you like. It’s actually under 1.036 points per possession if you really want to get particular about it, but you see the point here. Even Marquette’s biggest disaster in the last 10 games — the home game against DePaul — has status as one of their 11 best defensive outings of the season since holding the Blue Demons to 0.98 points per possession was definitely not MU’s problem while scoring just 14 points in the first half.
In the last 10 games, Marquette has been throwing the #9 defense in the country at their opponents according to BartTorvik.com’s data filtering. That’s good enough to help the Golden Eagles rank as the #32 team in the country across the past six weeks and change. They’d probably be a little bit better than that — or at the very least have a better record than 5-5! — if that defense wasn’t being paired with the #103 offense across the same time frame.
Shooting the ball has not been Marquette’s problem. 55% effective field goal percentage, 57% on two-pointers, 36% on three-pointers. Getting the ball through the rim is not the issue. Getting the ball to the rim is the issue. MU has been turning it over nearly 18% of the time, which ranks them #279 in the country in the last six weeks, and that’s nearly two full percentage points over their middle-of-the-country 16.1% season long turnover rate. One of the things that has made Shaka Smart’s offenses so lethal for the past three seasons is an essential refusal to turn the ball over. MU ranked #26, #30, and #8 in the country in the last three seasons in offensive turnover rate according to KenPom.com, and when you mix that against ranking in the top 20 in forcing turnovers, that’s a significant advantage in how possessions are being used. MU’s defense is still dangerous in that regard — #34 overall, #17 in the last six weeks — but the Golden Eagles are struggling to make that an advantage by flinging the ball around the barn on their own end.
Part of that problem is merely because Marquette handed the keys to a six foot tall freshman point guard. We’ve mentioned it before in these pages, but we’ll repeat it with up to date numbers: Marquette is 2-12 this season when Nigel James commits three or more turnovers. Yes, the flipside of 10-7 is not ideal either, but that’s a winning percentage that gets you to 18 wins in a 31 game schedule, and who’s signing up for .143 instead of .588?
The catch? The UConn game is one of the two wins, as James had six turnovers against the Huskies back on Saturday.
The double catch, especially as it applies to Xavier on Wednesday at Madison Square Garden? The game at Cintas Center is one of the seven losses, as James had just two turnovers in that game against 30 points and 12 assists.
Oh, by the way, Xavier in the same time frame where Marquette has had the #9 defense in the country? They’ve gone 3-9 overall with the #244 defense in the country and the #49 offense. Part of their defensive trouble has been forcing turnovers on just 13% of possessions. If Marquette can hold onto the ball and recreate their defensive intensity, they should be able to find a way to advance to Thursday’s quarterfinal where UConn is waiting after a bye to that round.
Marquette Last 10 Games: 5-5, with wins in their last two games and three of the last four.
Xavier Last 10 Games: 3-7, with losses in their last two games and five of their last six.
All Time Series: Marquette leads, 62-29.
Current Streak: Xavier’s win in Cincinnati earlier this season snapped a two game Marquette stretch in the series. The Golden Eagles have still won seven of the last nine against the Musketeers.
Big East First Round Schedule
All games streaming exclusively on Peacock
3pm Central: #8 Butler vs #9 Providence
5:30pm Central: #7 Marquette vs #10 Xavier
8pm Central: #6 DePaul vs #11 Georgetown
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